JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/25

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TBone

12:46

what happens if the MLB just dead ball the ball in april, and then all these numbers and your hard work will be off?

Lowetide

12:46

Also, Toyota's last a long time.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

That's what OPS+/wRC+ are for!

Yeah, but if you just need a working car, one new one is better than three identical old ones

War2d2

12:47

I think the danger you wind up with in going the “aggregate” route is what the Giants dealt with the last four-ish years or so—you’re good enough at multiple positions, and great at exactly none of them. Granted, those Giants teams were probably one “Arson” Judge away from the playoffs, and the Yankees do have that over them…

Capt. Cook

12:47

For as much as ZiPS likes the Cubs, I'm not really seeing big Dansby Swanson rebound numbers in there. What is likely in store for his 2025?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I think you're being very greedy

He just had a 4.3 WAR season

mmddyyyy

12:48

Are there any good resources to figure out how a player pronounces their name?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Various media guides float around, plus BR

April

12:48

Since we’re asking questions you’re deferring for a few months, how much money will you need to pay or get back from the IRS on your taxes?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I typically owe a bit

12:50

I never have my salary withholding configured well enough to cover non-salaried compensation, and am usually off by a few hundred or so

but not enough that I have to file quarterly

Josh

12:50

With his positional uncertainty, how does Lux fit into your Reds ZIPS projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I actually think him or McLain will be 3b

12:52

Nolan Ryan pitched 332 innings of sub 3 ERA and FIP in 1974 but is only credited with 6.3 WAR. What gives?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

the league had a 3.63 FIP in 1974

Mike M.

12:53

When does ZipsGPT come out? I have a lot of questions I'd like to ask it. About Sasaki projections, love, and regrets.

I am the Apple

12:53

Dan, no catcher made the top 20 in your projected career WAR list. Which catcher came the closest?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Adley Rutschman then William Contreras

12:55

Or Wiliam Contreras since his parents still owe the universe an l

Cartaya

12:55

What happened to Diego Cartaya to make him fall so far?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

If you map that out, it's called Cartayography

12:56

His bat scertainly became a lot less exciting

Koztradamus

12:57

What % likelihood do you give S. Marte to have another very good/great season this year? (I might trade for him.). Hopefully no power outage like years ago.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Pretty low. Dude's 36

Ben

12:57

Those Vizquel allegations are pretty terrible and shouldn't be ignored. That stuff from when he was a coach alone should keep him out. Especially with the precedent of steroid users not getting in based on the "character clause." (Also I agree that he just wasn't good enough.)

Dan Szymborski

12:57

The allegations are horrific of course

12:59

But I strongly feel that the intent was *baseball* character, not societal character. If I thought Vizquel were a better player, I'd put an industrial strength clothespin on my nose and vote for him. I would have voted for Schilling as well.

No shade whatsoever cast on those who feel differently with their personal line.

1:01

I'm a No on Vizquel next year, and I'm a there's no suspended PED user on the ballot who is borderline for me

1:02

What MLB player is Butters in South Park?

I just want to talk about South Park, Dan

Dan Szymborski

1:02

wait, did I make a reference somewhere?

I can't say who is Butter though

Phil

1:02

As someone who saw Smith play in person at Shea Stadium quite a few times, "comparable to Smith" is just not a thing. BR's 42 dWAR does not take me aback at all.

War2d2

1:03

I was always an Ozzie Smith denier, 100% because I am a Cubs fan. But then about 10 years ago a friend gifted me a box set of famous Cubs games DVDs, and I watched the “Ryne Sandberg Game” in its entirety. There were only two players on the field that day that looked like modern players, that looked like they would make it in today’s game: Sandberg and Ozzie. He made at least three throwaway plays that maybe four or five SS today would make, and he made it look easy. I doubt he’d hit enough against modern pitching, but the glove was definitely for real.

Ben

1:03

Jeez, Ozzie Smith is 70 years old

Father time: still undefeated.

Guest

1:03

Re: Pet for Justinian – I read that as you were going to get a dog or cat for Justinian to have as their own pet in the same way Justinian is your pet.

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