JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/12/18

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Dan Szymborski

12:18

The Super Twos will still have the salaries compared, in year three, to members of their class.

It's not like they get a "running start" that persists through four years of arbitration.

There may be a *small* benefit, but it's dwarfed by the one-year FA salary of a top player

LFC Mike

12:18

Jose Altuve said he will be back at 120%. The only person to comeback at that rate or higher after a big injury was Colonel Steve Austin. Is Altuve the first bionic player?

Xolo

12:18

Is it weird that Preller came out and said he wants Suarez, who the Reds have not come out and said is available? Seems bold, or is that really not so uncommon?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

It's a bit unusual to be so frank about players on other teams

Jeries

12:19

Is Yolmer Sanchez basically Josh Harrison? Should the Sox extend him so he's a super-utility guy when they're ready to be good?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I wouldn't call them the same player, but on a general value basis, probably

Tim

12:19

The Padres are expected to be active in the SP market. What would it take to deal for Dylan Bundy? I see 4 years of team control on a buy-low player who had a reasonably high prospect pedigree. Good fit or nah?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I think it's hard to see without the Orioles even having a GM in place

Also, I *think* offhand that Bundy's got three years to FA, not four

Mandy is the Best Movie of 2018

12:20

It is unlikely to happen, but what is the best type of deal the Royals could get for Merrifield?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I think they could get a backend top 100 prospect for Merrifield. Even cutting back some ont he BABIP, he was a legitimate star-level 2B in 2018.

The age is a concern, but he's not hitting FA for a long time

Kiermaier's Amblyopia

12:21

Daniel..A final argument and chance to berate me and other chatters..for the final time..should ROY awards be adjusted so established veterans like Ohtani are not considered? Mike Trout winning the Japanese ROY award?..really?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I love NPB, but it's also not quite a the level of MLB.

12:23

While it's between AAA and MLB, it's near-enough to AAA that a pitcher in the PCL or a hitter in a pitchers' park in the IL have about the same environmental difficulty change.

And it would be weird to say a pitcher from Albuquerque or Colorado Springs shouldn't be eligible for ROY, wouldn't it?

CamdenWarehouse

12:23

Where is the line to be berated?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

No bright line; I'm a Judge Potter-berater.

Matt VW

12:24

FG's projections had the Red Sox as (admittedly slight) underdogs in all three of their postseason series. Looking back, do you think they had something that was escaping quantification/ running underestimated in the projection, or do you think that they basically won three coin flips even with the odds tilted slightly against them for each toss?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

One of the frustrating things about projections is you never know answers like this on a micro level about projections.

12:25

There's no Hand of God that comes down and gives you a tablet letting you know what .300 hitters were in fact "true" .290 hitters that were lucky or .310 hitters that weren'te.

On a larger scale, there are lots of tests for calibration

But you'll never get an answer on something like this related toa projection.

Mandy is the Best Movie of 2018

12:26

Ryan O'Hearn: Solid everyday 1B, platoon 1B, or bench bat?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I'm not sold on him being a legit starter.

He was quite lousy in AAA.

12:27

But that doesn't meant he Royals shoudl bench him or anything, but simply continue to show he's legitimately improved.

And the good thing about being a rebuilding team -- though I'm not sure the Royals understand this -- is that you have the luxury of being able to test out players like this.

A team like the Yankees or Astros would have a hard time simply trusting O'Hearn in 2019.

Kevin Faulconer

12:28

While the focus of this off-season will likely focus on the future of Thor in NY, what are the chances the Mets deal Steven Matz? As Mayor of San Diego, I'd love to see my hometown Padres land him as he has 3 more years of team control. Is that a pie in the sky wish, just like my hope that Hosmer will win a Silver Slugger?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I don't think they deal their pitchers.

Aleman Marquez

12:28

Aren't the chances that some GM takes advantage of Van Wagenen this winter pretty high? What does he know about making trades, or even valuing his players and prospects?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I think people are overrating these types of issues.

I suspect Wagenen's problems would be more *political* and authority-based within the Mets organization.

12:30

He's not some guy the Mets picked up because he won his Yahoo fantasy league three years in a row. Agents have to understand these issues quite deeply in order to properly represent their interests.

Porter

12:30

Which top 10 free agent do you see still waiting come February?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I'm not quite sure he's even a top 10 free agent, but he may at least be on the edge - Moustakas again.

12:32

I'll be very surprised if Moustakas beats $15 million and he may come up much short.

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