JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/21/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:01

Welcome!

Since it decided not to post in the queue for some reason at 11:40 and I had to force it at 11:57, there's no queue built up, so feel free to ask any question, no matter how ridiculous

12:02

And there's a good chance I'll be able to answer it, since asking me about how I evaluate pretzels or how many weird AIs I've made of Lindsey Graham is way better than awkward silence

Kate

12:02

Would Grant Holmes projection be worse if he was projected in the rotation? In terms of how ZiPS projects his role, is that something you do manually?

Dan Szymborski

12:03

As a default, ZiPS will project a player based on their recent usage. It looks at the last four years and VERY heavily weights recent play.

12:04

However, I have clickboxes for "full-time starter" or "full-time reliever" which will cause ZiPS to go back and translate the past baselines for a pitcher into full-time starter or full-time reliever lines, and then make a new projections

Err, by default, it goes by the current player's use

12:07

Kate

12:08

What should we make of Reynaldo Lopez and Strider having the same ERA projection? Seems like ZiPS is buying what Reynaldo is selling?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Not too much, mostly coincidence! Strider's better, but there's more risk

Lopez really showed that he's a solid starting pitcher, though I don't know if you can really expect 180 innings out of him or anything

Chris

12:09

Would the Red Sox entertain trading Trevor Story to ATL in a similar salary dump like the Chris Sale trade? Or do the optics of his comeback make that unlikely

Dan Szymborski

12:10

I don't think it's entirely crazy. The REd Sox have done a lot of things that aren't great optics!

David Stearns

12:10

Chances Lindor ends up the best shortstop ever once his career is over?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Fairly low. Now, his best chance, of course, will be the best shortstop AS a shortstop, so that you can push out Wagner from a third of his career (and then knock him down a few pegs playing pre-integration)

12:12

A-Rod for the same reason (well, nto the integration part)

12:13

ZiPS has him finishing about 15 WAR behind Ripken though, so his stardom will have to linger longer than expected

Joe

12:13

Is it realistic to think the Orioles can improve their roster from last year, given that they need to re-sign or replace Burnes and Santander just to maintain?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

They *could* but I'm not sure they'll shell out the kind of cash to make the team BETTER on paper

12:14

I expect the O's, long-term, even with a presumably better owner, will go more then Mariners .540 route.

But maybe I'm wrong? The proof of the pudding is in the eating

Idiotic Failson

12:14

I would like to speak to your manager. I find it wholly unacceptable that the Yankees have not signed Soto yet.

Dan Szymborski

12:15

While it's a joke, I had actual Reds fans loudly demand the Reds fire me for my 2021 ROY vote, as little sense as that makes on so many levels.

Idiotic Failson

12:15

What does ZIPS want to give Anthony Rizzo for a contract?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Projecting Rizzo in a neutral park, ZiPS would offer one-year, $3.4 million.

12:17

Let's just say...ZiPS isn't particularly optimistic

Old dude swap

12:17

Jays send Springer + Barger to STL for Arenado. STL pays down Arenado to equal Springer total $. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Meh. I see the benefit for the Jays but not so much the Cards.

Ross

12:18

How do you think it's best to use / consume the player comps ZiPS spits out? The Danny Tartabull and Brian Giles comps for Michael Arroyo really caught my eye.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

For fun. They're the marginally best comps in a massive group of similar players

12:19

Keep in mind that unless I linked the wrong one, it's not the Brian Giles you want

12:21

How come no struggling American minor league player has never attempted to adopt a Japanese batting style? Given the success of Japanese players, you would think even mediocre players might give it a try.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I think it's for the same reason that you didn't have a lot of guys actually able to inside out a medium hit against the shift: professional baseball is so competitive that it's hard to succeed with your second-best approach

12:24

And you don't really have the hitting coaches to aid hitters with that approach

Hi Dan

12:24

Whether or not this gets posted just want to say I appreciate all the team write-ups for ZiPS!

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I appreciate you guys reading! After all, it's your eyeballs or wallets that enable me to do ZiPS stuff publicly

Refugee

12:25

How many games does a replacement level team win? I've seen the number hover between 45-50, but I'm not sure how analysts calculate this number.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

47.6 wins. Basically, FG/BR had different ideas, so there was a meeting and they decided to unite the replacement levels at a level so there were 1000 WAR per season

This may seem weird, but INTERPRETABILITY of WAR is actually as important as strict accuracy

12:27

We're not building rocket ships, and the underlying stat being stable as to the denominator is more useful than trying to figure out if 47 or 49 or 53 wins is "ideal"

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