JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/21/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/21/24

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Luke

12:28

What do you think about the Rays acquiring all of these low slot release pitchers at last season's trade deadline? The Tanner Houck profile. Is their stats to back up that low slot releases are effective keeping ball in the park ?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Because sidearmliness is next to godliness!

Cromulent

12:29

As we head into free agent season, what does ZIPS think are the worst contracts already on the books?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

(I actually haven't really studied slot and HR vs. peripherals with any depth)

12:30

I haven't done a detailed rundown of this

12:31

but I'm pretty confident that Bryant is up there. Rendon too. And sadly, Strasburg (it's not his fault, of course, but from a contract standpoint, the Nats are not overjoyed by the situation)

LB

12:31

So how bananas is Kristian Campbells projection and is it better then Langfords was last season?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Just regular bananas. You can get a banana, but you can't get the Gob special frozen banan

Serious only

12:31

It’s really cold, which of your cats is the warmest and are they available?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Justinian's the only good option of the four.

He's not the biggest or warmest, but he'll sit on your lap and stay there

12:34

His brother is Constantine is chonkier, but he also will tend to continually get up and reposition and he's a much moodier cat. Mercutio has good bulk but he's always been an awful groomer so he's not as niceiiii to have on your lap as Justinian. Cassiopeia only really goes on your lap to have your undivided attention to her demands of meow.

Jackson

12:34

Rosenthal just reported that the Cubs want to trade Bellinger. Would the Cubs be likely to eat any of his contract to get a deal done? Does he have any real value otherwise?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I imagine they'd eat some.

Guest

12:34

Does ZiPS have a way of sussing out if poor performance was due to playing through injury? Some combination of player results where ZiPS can say it was more likely due to injury than actual decline or random variation?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

When there were discrete injuries with missed time, ZiPS is aware of them, though the precision is limited

it doesn't know if someone played through an injury

Gray

12:34

How much of a chance do you think Felix has to stay on the ballot for a second year?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

50/50

12:36

Santana getting so little consideration is a bad sign for King Felix, but the ballot isn't quite as clogged as it was back then and the voter base is a bit more modern

remember, when Santana was voted on, NONE of the internet-only or internet-mostly writers had 10 years in the BBWAA

12:37

Or a few, I forget the exact year Santana was

The BBWAA only started allowing internet writers to join in 2007

12:38

Next year is a pretty big sea change for the Hall ballot

12:39

If none of the current writers from the Class of 2016 die or abandon their membership in 2025, there are something like *80* new voters next year

12:40

Including 26 MLB.com writers. That was the year they started allowing MLB.com writers to join

include me and Jeff Z.

12:42

Some of the writers who get votes next year: Apstein, Bastian, Mark Bowman, Maury Brown, Callis, Casavell, Castrovince, Footer, Ghiroli, Harding, Hoch, Karabell, Langosch, Mayo, McTaggart, Melewski, Meoli, Merkin, Doug/Bryce Miller, Nicholson-Smith, Petriello, Jesse Sanchez, Sheldon, Eric Stephen, Szymborski, Zolecki, Zimmerman

West Texas Lizard

12:42

Who are some first-year Hall of Fame nomineees that you want to see survive the 5% cutoff and stay in the conversation?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

King FElix! I like when the previous question answers the next question!

12:43

I'm not going to get away with it that easily am I/

Pedroia/Kinsler

Guest

12:43

Are the Phillies legitimately interested in Juan Soto or are they just trying to drive up the price the Yankees and Mets will have to pay?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I don't think it's preposterous, though I don't think they'd be one of the top contenders

TJ

12:44

So Harris gets a 108 ops+ last year, puts up a 97 wRC+ irl with basically identical secondary markers (I guess his BABIP was a little lower), and the projection jumps 15 points to a 123? Am I missing something?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

You might be missing something, but so am I. I was legitimately surprised by it, to the extent I re-checked it. But then I saw that Steamer was predicting something similar

So you may be missing something, but I don't quite know what it is. It can't just be age; ZiPS knows that the improvement rate of already-star players when young isn't that high

Gray

12:45

Do you think the BBWAA will switch to digital ballots for HOF voting anytime soon?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I don't see why we couldn't

The year-end ballots are digital

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