JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/21/24

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Dan Szymborski

1:06

I think it would pretty close between Astros and M's, but I don't have confidence it makes them the clear FAVORITE

Guest

1:06

Who will end up up with a better career Betts or Judge?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

ZiPS says Betts by a hair. Both are projected to finish top 10 in JAWS among RF

Idiotic Failson

1:06

If you could throw 115 mph would you ever have to learn a secondary pitch, or is that velocity enough to get hitters out with even modest command?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

I think I'd need a secondary pitcher after my shoulder was obliterated

Syndergaardengnomes

1:07

JD Martinez going to retire? His second half was rough last year, but the underlying metrics were still pretty strong...

Dan Szymborski

1:07

As far as I know, he intends to keep playing

bbtm8

1:08

Would you trade ZiPS in exchange for the Skyline Chili empire?

Dan Szymborski

1:08

Absolutely. Unless I have to then eat the chili every meal for the rest of my life

1:09

But I could sell Skyline's assets for more than I could sell ZiPS for

1:10

What does Zips think of Willson Contreras at 1B? And how bad will the Cardinals be next year when they are done dealing everyone away but their failed prospects.

Dan Szymborski

1:10

ZiPS projection for Contreras as 1B is .239/.342/.418, 112 OPS+, 1.6 WAR in 399 PA

Kevin

1:11

Can you remind me how the player comps in the ZiPS projections work? In the Braves’ ZIPS, for example, Raisel Iglesias is comped to Mariano Rivera and Bobby Howry, two relievers with completely different career outcomes.

Dan Szymborski

1:11

They're recent past focused

ZiPS calculates a baseline for a player based on their recent history

and then compares it to every other recent history baseline for every plaeyr in the database

which is like 180,000 hitters

What matters a decade ago doesn't really matter

1:12

err what happened a decade ago doesn't really matter

and we're using the cohort to help us predict the future, so we can't USE The future to predict that!

Reno

1:12

Thoughts on new Hearthstone buffs/ nerfs?

Dan Szymborski

1:13

Haven't looked at he m yet!

Guest

1:14

Jackson Merrill had a great rookie year - I doubt anyone saw that amount of success coming last year. Was his season strong enough that it feel outside of ZiPS’ range of outcomes (like was his season more than 100% percentile)? How often do you get a season that’s so good/bad that the percentile falls above 100% or below 0%?

Dan Szymborski

1:14

OK, last question (I don't want you guys to have to type out more that I can't get to while I'm opening this)

1:15

96th percentile for OPS+

1:16

On that note, time for me take off for another week!

Thanks for coming!

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