JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/21/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/21/24

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West Texas Lizard

12:46

Who was the best defender in baseball that didn't receive a Fielding Bible award or Gold Glove this season?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Hmm

Lindor?

Crow-Armstrong?

Anon

12:48

Detroit going to do anything this offseason? Any sort of challenge/bad contract swap ideas for Javy?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I don't know if they WILL be, but I could imagine the Tigers dipping their toes into the second tier FAs

David

12:49

Which Free Agent do you think the Mariners end up with? None is a viable answer.

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I think they'll get a third tier OF and reliever, but I don't see more than that

War2d2

12:49

I’m depressed about the Cubs’ management running them like a small-market team. I didn’t think they’d try for Soto or Burnes, but I thought they’d at least make a run at Fried. They’re signaling through the media they’re more likely to max out at Eovaldi. As sad as it makes me to ask, what do you think the Cubs’ best moves to make on the margins are? Assuming their tightwad owners won’t let them anywhere near the luxury tax.

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Did they categorically state no Fried? I would have thought they'd be in the mix

12:51

I do think there's payroll upside for the Cubs, but I think ownership won't really explore it until the team is probably an 85-90 win team without the additions

David

12:51

Whats the ZIPS projection on Austin Shenton? Assuming it would just have him as a first baseman.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

OH right, is that you who asked on Blue Sky oN Twitter? Someone did and I totally forgot to follow-up

REopening ZiPS, but give me a few minutes

Idiotic Failson

12:51

I've seen this question asked/answered several different places, I'm interested in your take. Is it better to sign Soto and consolidate his WAR in one position, or spend a similar amount of money on say...Bregman and another player or two for similar WAR spread across players?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

It depends on the team. For a team that's generally competent most places but unspectacular? Like the Mariners? Soto. For a team that has a couple highlights and some BIG holes, then there's a case for spreading it around more. Note that the Mariners will not sign Juan Soto

Scotty

12:53

Does ZIPs ever predict a mediocre starting pitcher to be an elite reliever? Or is more conservative and assumes that transitions to the pen make them better (usually) but doesn't predict big breakouts that way?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

If you give me a sec, I'll tell you. Gonna filter for best projected relief ERAs for a guy with an ERA+ of 90 or below

12:56

the best projected ERA+ as a reliever for a guy at 90 or below are Keaton Winn (125), Joe Boyle (123), Hayden Birdsong (112), Luis Patino (112), Dane Dunning (106), Spencer Howard (106)

12:57

Now, the guys with the most overall ERA imrpovement projected as a reliever

12:58

are Dustin May, Hunter Greene, Garrett Crochet, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Drew Rasmussen, Matt Boyd, Tyler Glasnow, Yariel Rodriguez, Packy Naughton, Keaton Winn, Blake Snell

12:59

Oh, and David, Austin SHenton projects at .221/.308/.387 with a 102 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR as a 1B in 436 assumed PA

Tyler

12:59

What do you think about bregman to the brewers or tigers

Dan Szymborski

1:00

II'm not sure he's really ideal for Tigers and I can't see the Brewers going after him, even if that's a good fit (which I think i tis)

1:01

Now one team I think could go after him strongly is the Nationals, who have made some noise about spending more money

Sirras

1:01

I led my office's fundraiser for a charity. We raised $35k for a charity benefitting sick children. How many WARE (wins above replacement employee) is that worth? Note that WARE heavily weights bringing in new business and minimizing fees but does have some factor for culture.

Dan Szymborski

1:01

I think we need to know how many of you there are

And how much data there is on a replacement level fundraiser

1:02

I can think of many cruel ways to get data on this

LIke have two girl scout troops raising money side by side in the same location. One has cookies, the other does not

bbtm8

1:02

Hi Dan, I appreciated your article on NL ROY. I was surprised to see you lean so heavily on narrative reasoning. When voting on ROY, 1) how much do you consider WAA to show, as a commenter put it, "who was more awesome" vs. "who had more WAR", especially given different debut dates for rookies? And 2) Do you consider non context neutral stats such as WPA or RE24?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I consider WAA more heavily for careers than for single seasons

One of the things abotu know how to use stats is that you also need to know the limitations of the tools

1:04

and I didn't feel that our generalized tools could decide a question like this very well, given the differences

Chris

1:04

Does ZIPS have a projection for sasaki next year?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

I haven't run it yet

I should have already, but the thing is, Dan at 46 remembers his mental to-do list much more sporadically than Dan at 26 did

West Texas Lizard

1:05

You're a brilliant guy. I love to hear unpopular opinions. Give me a reason why Oliver Marmol earned a third-place vote for National League Manager of the Year.

Dan Szymborski

1:05

I mean, he kept teh team from murdering each other after 2023? That's something? And if part of the job is figuring out how to keep the job, he did a damn good job after 2023

Billy

1:06

Just putting this out there... and I know you haven't run the Rangers and Astros projections yet... if the Mariners had a healthy Alex Bregman for 150 plus games at third base would they be the favorite in the AL west?

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