JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/17

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Dimpledore

2:48

Let's look back in time for a moment. When the Braves, Rays, and Mariners swapped Gohara/Yarbrough/Burroughs to Braves, Mallex Smith to Rays, Drew Smyly to Mariners would you have said that the trade was fair? In hindsight, the Braves come out far ahead on this deal, but had Smyly been healthy, this might have been seen as a win now for Mariners, a salary dump for the Rays, and dealing prospects from surplus for the Braves, correct?

Dan Szymborski

2:48

It's about right. I dont' think the trade was really fundamentally unfair for anyone.

Sandy Ravage

2:48

The Ohtani questionnaires: First and foremost, do you think he's looking for 1) outside the box answers 2) which teams are the most knowledgeable (indicating research) or 3) where he can have the biggest impact? Obviously all, but which first?

Jeff

2:48

A year ago you projected Lugo for a 4.58 FIP, this year he's projected for a 4.7 FIP. In between he posted a 3.95 FIP. I mean, he's a fairly inconsequential player either way, but you can see why I'm confused, right?

Dan Szymborski

2:48

I projected a much better offensive league last year.

errr

worse

2:49

And the hit location/velocity data I have did not reflect well on Lugo's 2017.

Yeezy

2:49

LOL @ someone coming into your chat and telling you how to run your chat.

Dan Szymborski

2:49

There's no Unsafer Space than Szymborski Chat.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

2:49

D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe needs a new name and to get back to that one time he guest-starred on CSI: Miami.

v2micca

2:50

To answer your questions:
It sucked.
It sucks more.
It sucks, then you die.
They mostly suck.

Pie

2:50

Thoughts on thoughts?

Pat

2:50

I saw a Twitter account called "Bill James Online" tweet that Nomar Mazara could be a potential MVP candidate? What does he need to do to reach that point? Bring the average up, hit more dingers, run more?

Dan Szymborski

2:50

a LOT more homers.

I'm not seeing it.

Slamboni

2:50

When projecting players with league experience from all other leagues, how much do you take previous workload into account? For example, when projecting Yu Darvish for 2018, are you bringing in all the mileage that he put on his arm in Japan/WBC before coming to the US?

Dan Szymborski

2:50

WBC is one thing ZiPS does not consider.

Pitchers coming over don't tend to be worked as hard per game as in Japan

Bryce Harper

2:51

Is the Mets ZiPS projection really that bleak? It looks pretty optimistic at SS, 1B and catcher. Their three best players aren't projected for a ton of playing time, so it comes down to health like always, right?

Dan Szymborski

2:51

You're missing one of the key cultural elements of being a Mets fan.

2:52

Some people see glasses half-full. Some half-empty. New York Mets see a glass and assume someone's going to smash the glass, hide powdered glass in your dinner, steal your kidney while you sleep, and then the Mets doctors will diagnose your problems as whooping cough.

Daniel

2:52

What are your thoughts about Peter Angelos?

Dan Szymborski

2:52

SMASH THE WORLD

Zipster

2:53

Who has the best chance of contributing to the O's roster in 2018 from their Bowie roster?

Dan Szymborski

2:54

Tanner Scott or Austin Hays.

Jonathan

2:55

Re: paucity of testing data, there's always cross-validation.

Dan Szymborski

2:56

Cue me naked on a magazine cover hiding my unmentionables with the title K-FOLD THE INTERNET, DAN SZYMBORSKI

RSO

2:56

An article on River Ave Blues suggested the Yankees trade for Christian Yelich this offseason. I thought the proposed package the Yankees were giving up seemed a little light. What kind of package do you think it would take for the Yanks to pry him for the Marlins?

Dan Szymborski

2:56

You'd have to give up at least one major prospect to get the Marlins even talking. I don't know if they're at a realistic place yet (the Marlins)

Ampersand

2:56

How often should I wash a jar that I only use to drink water out of every day? I just scrubbed it for the first time in... a while... and I'm dismayed at how much clearer the glass is now

Dan Szymborski

2:56

I wouldn't worry. Build up your immune system.

Bobby Portis

2:57

Not Heyward?

Dan Szymborski

2:57

Heyward's young enough that he can bumble 1.5-3 WAR a year for a long time. Cabrera has big clifftential.

teufelshuffle

2:57

Steamer has Dominic Smith as a replacement level scrub next year, hitting .254/.309.417, ZiPS has him as a solid regular at .272/.324/.430. Is there something about Smith falling on his face in his MLB cup of coffee that makes them project him so differently?

Dan Szymborski

2:58

It's hard to tell without knowing the precise innards of Steamer. But from the advanced hit data, ZiPS did not think his MLB BABIP was even close to warranted.

Rick C

2:58

Does ZiPS prefer Albies or Swanson?

Dan Szymborski

2:58

Albies now.

Re: Hat

2:58

The Hartford Yard Goats!

Ciscoskid

2:58

could you see a team trading for dee gordon and moving him to CF to add in surplus value to his contract.