JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/30/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:00

ITS CLOBBERING TIME

striker

12:00

Being an Orioles fan and play analyst, who would you be willing to give up in a Cease deal? Would a Cease + Jimenez deal interest you?

Dan Szymborski

12:01

Jimenez no

12:03

Cease, I'd do something with Westburg as the center (I like Westburg). But I wouldn't go Westburg AND Mayo

Joe

12:04

What key indicators do you look at for determining if a prospect should be called up?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Well, who he's replacing really.

12:05

Any prospect worth bringing up is worth challenging.

I'm not a fan of using prospects as role players

except breaking in pitchers the first year or so

Sirras

12:05

Which FA pitcher(s) do you think are most likely to outperform their ZiPS projection? To underperform?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

I actually think Nick Martinez still has potential that he hasn't yet shown on his return

12:06

I'm actually happy with most of the ZiPS starter free agent projections

TomBruno23

12:06

Fairly large news everyone I saw our man Big City at Lona's Lil Eats yesterday Conversation went essentially like this, “Matt Adams…good to see you.” “Good to see you too.” “You really do not have to say that but thanks.” “OK.”

Alex

12:06

Why does zips like Alex Verdugo so much? It’s not like his secondary stats are that great either. And he didn’t tear up the minors or anything

Dan Szymborski

12:07

It still thinks that given his profile, he should be hitting better in Fenway

as far as I can tell; it's always hard to extract things

12:08

I'm a little surprised by ZiPS' Kerry Carpenter projection. While he doesn't have a long track record, last year's production seems mostly legit.

Dan Szymborski

12:09

The track record still matters.

"Last season" is a bad projection system, even for young or youngish players

Kyle

12:09

What are your personal prognostications on how likely Nolan Jones will be able to hit 23 HR with 16 SB and a 260 average like Steamer says? 30% K rate but that's mostly because of passiveness. Z-Contact isn't great but not as bad as many other 30% K guys.

Dan Szymborski

12:10

ZiPS seems more optimistic. It's about 50 PA lighter than Steamer, but ZiPS has him at 22 HR and .271

though fewer SB (13)

Guest

12:11

If you're a GM, do you trade anything of value for Jared Kalenic? Too risky a career move?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Of value? Maybe. Of a LOT of value? No

Anon21

12:11

Do you think it's dumb to pay for mid-tier relievers like Reynaldo Lopez in free agency? Just seems like the error bars around 60-inning seasons are so big that you're better off hunting bargains from the enormous scrum of freely-available guys and moving on quickly from the ones who don't click.

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Depends on the team.

Contenders ought to be more risk-averse

but mediocre teams shouldn't be doing it

Kyle

12:12

Can you estimate how much Glasnow's ERA/WHIP would be hurt by being traded to CIN?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Some (Sorry, ZiPS is running Astros right now)

Harry

12:12

What is one thing that is generally accepted by the analytics community/industry that you disagree with?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I'm probably more bunt-friendly than most people.

Now, I don't like sac bunts or bunts from players who suck at it

12:13

BUT, the break-even chances quite a bit as the chances for a hit increase

12:14

I think every fast player should get a lot of focus on bunting until they show that it's ineffective for them

Ben

12:15

Hey Dan, love the ZiPS projections coming out during this dead period before the Winter Meetings. What would you do with Rafaela if you were the Red Sox? Should he be considered for the starting CF job out of spring training? Stashed in AAA? Floated in a trade? He's a pretty polarizing prospect among Red Sox fans.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I'd probably start him at AAA to work on plate discipline and see what happens from there

Guest

12:16

when does FIP not remove counting IBBs?
I get that it's not a big deal but Penn Murfee had 3 intentional walks last season in 14 innings last season. His FIP would be more than a half run lower if IBBs weren't counted

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I'd certainly remove it.

12:17

When ZiPS calculates FIP/ERA relative to defensive expectations, it removes IBB

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