JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/30/23

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Insert Witty Name Here

12:17

Have you used any AI tools to analyze data yet? The chatGPT app doesn’t quite give the in depth stuff I always appreciated from you, but in a few years from now…

Dan Szymborski

12:18

No.

(I assume you're not talking about things like neural networks)

12:19

In any case, I always place a premium on tools that are more transparent

TomBruno23

12:20

Give me some names that are realistic for the Cardinals to add to their bullpen because the current crop is far from contender-ready.

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I can see Stratton and/or Robertson

Ben

12:21

Am I wrong in my belief that more big market teams should be willing to trade away major league talent if they aren't in a playoff race? It seems like such an obvious thing to do yet only small market teams seem to ever really do it. Is it just because of the fan backlash?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

A lot of those big market teams have different horizons for a bounceback

It depends on the situation

Mark

12:21

I was recently trying to find a glossary page or article discussing when statistics normalize or become predictive (ex: command+ takes 100 pitches to stabilize while stuff+ takes 10), and couldn’t find anything great. Any recs on where to find information like this?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

For the Eno stats, I'm not sure

Other stuff, I talked to here.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-hitter-xstats-are-useful/

Creator of Zips

12:21

How dare you not credit my work!

Dan Szymborski

12:22

You're lucky I lower barrels of gruel into the oubliette.

Jake Larsen

12:22

If you were in charge of the Rays, would you keep Glasnow at least until the deadline? Or would you trade his 25 million $ contract knowing that he has never pitched over 120 innings in a season throughout his entire career and has no strong playoff pedigree over 10 appearances?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

As always, it depends on the return.

Jake Larsen

12:23

Is WWF No Mercy still the greatest wrestling video game ever made?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I think it's fair

12:25

Though because of where I was and my friends were in life, I played more Wrestlemania 2000

And I'll always have a soft spot for the Fire Pro wrestling series, that had way better move sets for CAW than any of the AKI games

Zink

12:25

When you're projecting defense for minor leaguers, what all/most importantly goes into that? Presumably the scouting defense grades, but it seems like there isn't much else to go on other than height/weight, speed, and arm. Is there anything else that you've found to be predictive?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

No scouting grades.

12:26

I have a total zone-esque measure. I have coordinate data for every hit ball and I have a model of probability for everywhere on the field.

12:31

Like I have a quarter millions of entries like this

trajectory hardness location coordX coordY adj x adj y slope degrees Responsibility ground_ball medium 5 60.76 139.41 -69.24 70.59 -0.98088 -44.4469 third baseman Zavier Warren ground_ball medium 5 93.72 166.28 -36.28 43.72 -0.82983 -39.6868 third baseman Zavier Warren ground_ball medium 7 69.15 133.86 -60.85 76.14 -0.79919 -38.6313 third baseman Zavier Warren ground_ball medium 5 99.8 170.84 -30.2 39.16 -0.7712 -37.6392 third baseman Zavier Warren ground_ball medium 5 96.41 167.17 -33.59 42.83 -0.78426 -38.1058 third baseman Zavier Warren ground_ball medium 5 60.26 121.37 -69.74 88.63 -0.78687 -38.198 third baseman Zavier Warren ground_ball medium 5 113.29 187.56 -16.71 22.44 -0.74465 -36.6733 third baseman Zavier Warren ground_ball medium 5 111.98 186.13 -18.02 23.87 -0.75492 -37.05 third baseman Zavier Warren bunt_grounder medium 5 110.75 184.51 -19.25 25.49 -0.7552 -37.06 third baseman Zavier Warren ground_ball medium 5 99.29 169.32 -30.71 40.68 -0.75492 -37.0498 third baseman Za

Guest

12:31

in light of the Lynn and Severino deals, how much does Jack Flaherty make this offseason? I'm assuming he will take a 1 yr

Dan Szymborski

12:31

He's getting a one year deal, I think

TomBruno23

12:32

Anxiously awaiting the Cards ZiPS to see how close Wainwright and Lynn come out. Dylan Cease makes too much sense not to happen. Right? Wrong?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Depends if they're willing to give up the prospect number

I'm less sure they'd do something like that after signing Gray

12:33

They'd basically be making a guy they signed to a one-year deal as a FA this sixth starter right away and I'm not sure they'd be keen on that

romorr

12:33

How would you fit Mayo into the Orioles 2024 plans? Let him fake it a bit at 3B, and come out early for a defensive replacement, or throw him at 1B and call it a day. I know he's young, but 267 PAs with a .900 OPS in AAA last year shows that he should be close. His BB/K% numbers are wonderful for a power hitter.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Get him as much work at AAA at 3B as possible. I don't want to move him to the easy side of the defensive spectrum without a fight

then figure it out

striker

12:33

Westburg, Kjerstad and Povich. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

O's hopefully. I wouldn't give up Westburg AND Kjerstad

Jefferson

12:34

Torkelsons projection is not too surprising with his strong second half, but I am very surprised at his 20% split of 97 ops+ being slightly better than his career numbers. Did he always have an excellent floor like this?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

No, but ZiPS liked his 2023 bette than his stats

Kyle

12:36

ZiPS has Skubal for a 3.65 ERA but 3.39 FIP - does the variance come from assessing park factors and defensive capabilities? What other factors does this variance take into account?

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