JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/30/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:50

That is like a 69-win projection

A Boy Named Yu

12:50

In case anyone was wondering, it only took $403 million/13 yrs to sign Ohtani in my MLB The Show.

Guest

12:50

Yamamoto just makes too much sense for the orioles and the next 5-6 years with rutch, henderson, and holiday. I know it's not going to happen, but man it would literally be the best move any team could make this offseason.

12:50

I think that in general some Fangraphs writers (not you) have been sloppy in explaining that consistent gaps between FIP and ERA are very frequently due to defense. I'm thinking in particular of an article on Nola that noted that his ERA is projected to trail his FIP, but it did not note that Philly's defense is always terrible these days.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I can only speak and control what I do, but I think the general tenor is that it is assumed that a lot of it is defense

Carl

12:51

Any thoughts on the likely extension for Chourio? Your own and/or ZiPS

Dan Szymborski

12:51

ZiPS are in Eric's upcoming article

Which might be up by now! I'm not sure

Matt VW

12:51

After a 5.4 bWAR season at age 22 in 2019, Rafael Devers has posted value between 3.5 and 4.5 bWAR in the three full seasons since, with a ZIPS projection of 3.6 for his age 27 season in 2024. Is this the player he is now, or is there still some chance of reaching the higher ceiling he once seemed capable of?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I'm not sure he has a super high ceiling just because there's only so far you can go hitting homers.

Guest

12:52

Warren Morris. Why?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Waitk, what's going on?

A Boy Named Yu

12:52

What made up your Thanksgiving feast this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

turkey, stuffing with sage sausage and pecans, mashed potatoes with roasted garlic, pearl onions in mornay sauce, sweet potatoes with candied pecans, lima bean cassoulet (which I don't care for).

and my sister also made a pecan pie and a pumpkin pie

12:55

and she managed this with a two year old and a four year old and a 60 hour week last week as an oncology PA!

the guy who asks the lunch question

12:55

What's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

A single plain chorizo sausage

(I was behind and it was 11:40 and I realized I had not set up the chat yet)

12:56

so I just grabbed a sausage in my hand and ate in downstairs

Oddball Herrera

12:56

"In case anyone was wondering, it only took $403 million/13 yrs to sign Ohtani in my MLB The Show."

I wish this meant that Ohtani is now off the market because someone signed him to play MLB The Show for $400 mil

Fisher

12:56

Have you run projections yet on Trea Turner? I was surprised that Steamer was close to his numbers last year and not the 2 before that. Is there a reason for that?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

You'd have to ask Jared!

12:57

But ZiPS isn't worried about him

Schroedinger's Warren Morris

12:57

Can I be like Pat Meares when I grow up?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Look, Cam Bonifay only has so many four year contracts to give out

171

12:57

I drive through the kenilworth & charles intersection on the way home from work every day and at least once a week i think about you sledding down the hill on the corner and think about how insane that is

Dan Szymborski

12:58

The bastards put a transformer at the bottom of where you come out!

You can't go all the way from the top to the bridge because there's a long plateau and you lose too much speed

The best starting point is about halfway up.

12:59

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.4134079,-76.6302899,3a,75y,143.46h,88....

1:00

It's hard to see with all the leaves

But you start about halfway up to the bridge

and you come out at the bottom

1:01