JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/30/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/30/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:36

In this case, it's mostly D, which ZiSP is not enthralled with

The Ghost of Dan's Grandma

12:36

Dear, there's nothing but bean-riddled chili here in the afterlife. Have they figured out a way to bring the dead back to life yet, sweetie? Also, what D tier free agent do the Pirates sign this offseason, pumpkin?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I doubt my grandmother ever ate chili in her life.

12:37

She mostly cooked north German and French cuisine

probably more French than German

Guest

12:38

Is Zips likely to react poorly or VERY poorly to Brandon Woodruff not pitching for essentially 1.5 years?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Haven't run it yet, but probably very poorly given shoulder

Guest

12:39

Any thoughts on Wendle to the Mets? Seems like they could have just kept Guillorme as a player with a similar skill set

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Yeah, a bit meh on it. but probably harmless

Richard

12:39

When you say "ZiPS likes [Player Name]" in your writeups, are you using your personal expectation as a frame of reference or another projection system like Steamer?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

depends on the context really

when I'm talking more than steamer, I'll say more than steamer

GA Blood

12:39

Hypothetically speaking, if a 2023 player hit their 50th percentile projection would you expect the 2024 projection to remain relatively constant from when you ran it before 2023 to when you run it before 2024? What are some factors that might change the projection in this circumstance?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

It depends on the exact distribution. Remember, ZiPS doesn't use pre-ordained distributions

TomBruno23

12:40

11.30.95 from the Nutter in Dayton is the accompaniment piece to the chat today. Sample In A Jar...

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Sorry door

I'm listening to Woodpigeon's Die Stadt Muzikanten

Dan’l

12:44

Who projects better: the pre-‘23 rotation of Montgomery/Mikolas/Wainright/Flaherty/Matz or pre-‘24 rotation of Gray/Mikolas/Gibson/Lynn/Matz??

Dan Szymborski

12:45

PROBABLY 24

Harmon Ripkowski

12:45

Please please please add blown saves and holds back much further than you do. Thank you

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Me?

Or the site?

DK

12:45

Both ZiPS and Steamer have Samuel Basallo as a ~.285-.290 wOBA player next year. He’s only 19, and no one expects him to be major league ready next year, but I guess I was expecting a better projection after the year he had and the prospect hype he’s getting. His ZiPS comps aren’t anything special either.

Is there something about his profile that gives pause (inflated BABIP? Size? Position?) or does ZiPS just want to see more than a one year breakout before anointing him the second coming of Josh Gibson?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Wants to see more

He's going to be really high on the top prospects list

probably top 10

(The ZiPS list)

Harmon Ripkowski

12:46

Oh, and the best 19th century ballplayer's nickname is...

Dan Szymborski

12:46

The Only Nolan

12:47

He INSISTED on being billed that way

12:48

He once played hooky from a game for a funeral but then went and got drunk instead

12:49

and left to take care of his sick brother but was actually visiting a prostitute

John Thorn's talked more about him, lemme find his blog entry

here it is

https://ourgame.mlblogs.com/the-only-nolan-bc7474dae960

Richard

12:49

Dan projecting baseball = ZiPS
Dan projecting water = SiPS
Dan projecting dodgeball = DiPS
Dan projecting fashion = HiPS
Dan projecting temperature = NiPS

laughing

2

CM Punk

12:50

O/U 3 years in the WWE in this current form?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Over I think

Bob

12:50

Are the royals the worst projected team you have ever seen? I can't think of a pitching staff, major league and prospect wise that I can remember being worse.

Dan Szymborski

12:50

No, there are definitely worst proejcted teams.

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