JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/1/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/1/22

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Guest

12:40

Its a Dan good day when we can read your chats! In your opinion is correa or turner a better fit for LA (with Xander being option 2 to 1A/B)?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Correa

12:41

I think there are reasons to like both as players

But Correa, you *know* he's very likely to have full buy-in with the Dodgers and their nerdiness

Jay

12:41

How big a difference does Trea Turner make in Phillies team projection if he lands there? Seems like he's exactly what they need to round out that lineup.

Dan Szymborski

12:41

A huge amount! The Phillies getting Turner would be amazingly awesome

They're right in that range where marginal wins are the most valuable

Dan Dan Noodles

12:42

Have you ever had Yank Sing chili sauce? Literally the best taste in the world. [2nd is freshly squeezed pink grapefruit juice.]

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I have not

Guest

12:42

American top end players are often coming in with their millions in signing bonuses from the draft so they have leverage in that they can afford to wait on their big payday. International players often don’t get that level of money so they are more likely to be motivated to sacrifice future earnings for present earnings. Just a theory

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Yeah, that's an issue teoo

In the end, leverage is going to rule transactions

Guest

12:42

What about George Washington American Cincinnatus?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Yup, though others have made that comparison before I believe

Ambivalent White Sox fan

12:43

You seemed, fairly, pessimistic on the ChiSox org in that post in terms of short and long term prospects. What's the most likely/realistic way to turn that org around?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Reinsdorf no longer being the owner for some reason

Rick Hahn had the misfortune, i strongly believe, about being fourth in the decision making pecking order

Jay

12:44

Will ZIPS include a projection for Jackson Chourio when the Brewers list comes out? Can't wait to see what the projection looks like for that kid...

Dan Szymborski

12:44

He will be

KingSolomon416

12:44

The Blue Jays have 3 major league ready catchers (Jansen, Moreno, Kirk) and absolutely need to trade at least one of them. Does this give the other teams leverage since they know Toronto likely doesn't want to enter the season with all 3 on the roster, and how the Jays might dump one of them for cheap (likely Jansen)? Does it give the other clubs incentive to hold out even if they really could use a catcher?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I don't think they really have leverage over the Blue Jays in this sense

12:46

I have a one-year-old Mazda 3 Turbo. If I won another Mazda 3 Turbo on a game show, I'd really want to sell one of them, but that doesn't mean I need to take pennies on the dollar, you can move a new or newish car in excellent working order

No matter how much you assume the Blue Jays "need" to trade a catcher, the fact that teams want those players means they won't suffer from that

Josh E

12:47

At what point is it realistic to think Major League Baseball expands? I know Manfred has said he won't until the A's and Rays get new stadiums, but even the NHL got to 32 teams before the MLB. Would love to hear your thoughts

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I think Manfred's actually being truthful here

There's no sense burning a couple extortion locations quite yet

Just Fowl

12:49

Crane seems to be doing a good job as gm, no matter what one thinks of him.

Tstats

12:49

What is the fallout if MLB loses antitrust

Dan Szymborski

12:49

MLB largely has in a lot of ways

Skip

12:49

Do many analytically minded front offices include former, non-analytically minded players in their decision-making processes? Bagwell courting Abreu seemed odd at first, but I guess I can see the value of sending a former franchise star to help make the sales pitch to a free agent.

Dan Szymborski

12:49

It varies on the team and the specific decision

12:50

But no team shuts out players and makes it a dorky statfest 100%

Guest

12:50

Dan - how does Zips account for confidence intervals among different players? Do you notice that certain players have tighter bands of simulation outcomes than others?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

ZiPS uses the large cohort to infer riskiness

Young catchers have wider bands because young catchers have historically had more uncertainty when you look at their projections compared to baselines

Mr. Ray, of Hair Weave Fame

12:51

Are the Orioles infielders good enough that the team could pursue a groundball pitcher like Quintana?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I think if the price isn't crazy, it's a possibility

12:52

Oh, someone asks the most similar player to Mo Vaughn earlier

While I can't DIRECTLY do it

looking at the ZiPS initial run

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