JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/1/22

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Mo Vaughn is Luke Voit's #3 comp

Guest

12:55

What kind of extension would ZiPS give Rafael Devers? He apparently wants a deal north of $300 million, but his WAR totals leave a little something to be desired. He does have the distinction of being arguably the second best player available in FA next offseason behind Ohtani.

Dan Szymborski

12:57

At the risk of spoiling a theoretical future article, 8/258

I'm not giving away a BUNCH of these though! lol

JP B.

12:58

Is there an undervalued player in the MLB that you really like?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

God help me, I still think the Joely Rodriguez breakout will be a thing

I'm not going to get away with Dylan Cease on a breakout list for a third year, sadly

Tstats

12:58

Do you believe in animal consciousness wise dan?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

To be honest, I'm not sure we're actually all that self-aware

I tend to be of the belief that our sense of self is just something created by the body as part of its self-preservation programming

DanIsOurMan

12:59

How is Cistulli doing these days?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Evil things I'm sure

Service Time Impingement Syndrome

12:59

How does ZIPS factor in health? Does it expect someone with repeated, nagging injuries like Robert to continue getting repeated, nagging injuries?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Nagging issues is tricky

1:00

ZiPS can very broadly look at *specific* injuries and DL time

X played through a sore hammy is way way harder

Guest

1:00

What percentile of outcomes does the Phillies postseason run fall into?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Well, ZiPS gave them a 2% chance of winning the WS entering the season

and while I don't publish it, a 3.8% chance of *making* the WS

I didn't break it down into game totals.

but losing in 6 is probably the "average" loss?

1:02

So call it 97th percentile?

JamJim

1:02

Which player in the minors is Zips most bullish on this year?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

Bullish is the eyes of this observer.

But I made this meme for a reason

1:04

And hey, since I'm in the image folder anyway, here's David Ortiz as Romeo again

1:05

And Dallas Keuchel sleeping in a pile of malformed Pokemon stuffed animals

Don

1:05

Does anyone even kind of understand how the Giants were so good in ‘21?

Josh R

1:06

Noticed this in a transactions list : Mariners Named Dave Cameron senior director, player procurement, Is this the former FanGraphs Dave Cameron?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

Yes

(Sorry, was making sure he made it official or I couldn't say anything)

I should probably mention this now that it's official. I get to do some really cool stuff for the @Mariners going forward. Quite a journey from @ussmariner (or asbs-m for us extra old people) to now. I couldn't be more excited. Sincere thank you to all. marinerspr.medium.com/mariners-annou…

And no, nobody does Don

But it doesn't prevent people still getting SUPER ANGRY with me about it

Josh E

1:07

Second (and final question for me - thanks for doing this) - the Tigers are an interesting franchise to me. They've been stuck in a weird rebuilding/mediocre stage for years. The Baez contract does not look like that will be a good marriage. Can Scott Harris really build them back to contention? Seems like it may take way longer than it should to get them back to contenders.

Dan Szymborski

1:07

I think he can, there are some good elements in the organization

and he's in a division where, let's be honest, there are no teams that are both big spenders and smart

Connecting…