JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/24

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Codeeg

1:02

Currently thinking of the yankees front office recreating the moneyball scene where they talk about the aggregate after they lost out on Soto.

Odoacer

1:02

What is the ideal league structure, in your opinion? I like 32 teams (so 2 expansion teams relatively soon), 2 "leagues" of 16, 4 divisions of 4 teams, division winners plus 4 wildcards for the playoffs. My only hesitation is maybe too many playoff teams.

Dan Szymborski

1:02

No byes is a HUGE no no for me

I'd like either a small playoffs of evenly matched teams

1:03

or, if a large playoffs, SIGNIFICANT handicaps for lesser seeds

With a 16 team playoffs

I'd want EVERY lower seeded team to have to SWEEP the better team

Jon

1:04

Tucker won't be 29 when he reaches FA

Dan Szymborski

1:04

He's 28 for 2025

and 29 for 2026

1:05

1/17/97

God, I'm getting old enough that I COULD have a 30-year-old kid

Jon

1:05

Oops. I'm a year off on his FA

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I think you're thinking FA in 2025 not the first year as 26

Jon

1:06

Sorry Dan. You're always right ❤️

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I wish

(or maybe I don't as that woudl be boring)

My name

1:06

are you pestered by agents for data ??

Dan Szymborski

1:07

I'm not sure I'd call it PESTERING. I've been a data provider for teams/agents for more than 15 years. But the confidentiality wall ESPN needed and I've maintained is that I never offer any advisory opinion. I hit a button, send what the button says, and I take every request at an identical price

My name

1:07

how does that '50s version of 'baby got back' not have 8 million views?!

Dan Szymborski

1:07

I think people are mostly annoyed by my AI nonsense

projections

1:07

So. Can you tell me what's likelier, that a person EVER has a 10 WAR season or that a person with two never has a third (which seems very likely but you get my point)?

Dan Szymborski

1:08

The second one

Bob Loblaw

1:08

What do you think about having a homerun derby instead of extra innings? It would be like when ancient Greeks would send their best warrior to square up against the other side's best warrior.

Dan Szymborski

1:09

I'd want to see how it works out in the minors first to see how terrible it is

There's a weirdness about baseball in that people get SUPER MAD that baseball is played the way it is now, but also SUPER MAD if you suggest any rule changes that change the way baseball is played right now

1:10

Too many people just think "Hey, how about nobody just use analytics and we'll magically be 1986" which is just about the most absurd argument ever

DeeBo

1:10

It's pretty bad that the A's ran a $62m payroll last year and now, with a potential MLBPA grievance looming, seemingly see no issues raising it to over $100m even as they call a AAA stadium home for the time being

Dan Szymborski

1:10

It's like bidding $20 at a school fundraiser for your kid's shitty crayon drawing of Batman.

DanDaMan

1:10

Hey Dan, do you contract with other internet writers about using your projections? I think I've seen some folks use ZiPS 3-year to fuel their own "trade calculator" things that they put behind paywalls and wondered whether they license the data from you.

Dan Szymborski

1:11

I do not believe there's much I can do about that

1:12

At the end of the day, the projections are facts generated by a projection system publicly, and that's not copyrightable

cool

1

and there's no terms of service issue; anyone can see the projections without a contractual agreement

Fantasy sites may have the three-years

but only parties that pay get those updated in season! OR 10 years!

Dan

1:13

Does Soto project similar Rest of Career to Trout when he was 26? I don't recall when the injuries started pulling down his long term expectations.

Dan Szymborski

1:13

Less so

Minors

1:13

Thanks for giving this such a go, Dan. What sort of park factors do we expect for the A's and Rays this year?

Dan Szymborski

1:13

I have sutter home as an almost neutral pitchers' park baed on being a good pitchers' park in the crazy PCL

1:14

err sutter HEALTH

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