JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:49

ZiPS is frightened of Alonso

12:49

Still confused about the Crochet $ projection. He stands to make something like $4 mil in arb this year and maybe $10 mil in arb next year. How does his contract drop from 7/191 to 7/180 in that case?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

211 to 180

Alfs

12:49

Do the ZiPS $ projections take into account how the market is valuing player performance? Or is it trying to be more objective (i.e., how much SHOULD a team pay)?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Trying to get what they ARE spending

12:50

191 was Tucker

War2d2

12:50

Thanks for the reply! Shaw being the obvious replacement for Paredes anyway was my main concern on a possible Tucker deal. Glad to have the validation that I’m not the only skeptical one.

Jon

12:50

Who projects better between Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell? Also, when do the Red Sox projections come out?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

In ZiPS, Campbell

DeeBo

12:50

Brewers have some work to do to shore up the infield after the Adames loss. Do you see them filling the gap internally or trading for a longer term solution out of their outfield depth, say, Mitchell or Frelick?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I expect it'll be internal

Henry Dodger

12:50

I think the Marlins are doomed with this ownership yet like what Peter Bendix is doing so far. Are you a fan of his moves?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I'm a fan of what he's tried to do, but he's basically like a contestant on Top Chef who drew the "cardboard box" knife rather than the "scallops" one in the elimination challenge

Guest

12:51

If Luis Castillo were to be traded, which teams do you think would be the best fits for him?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Orioles!

Jewish Pache

12:52

Can ZIPS put a dollar figure on the opt out in Severino’s contract? For the life of me, I can’t understand why they included that with the cap it puts on both his contract’s potential value to the A’s and his trade value. Haven’t really seen it discussed

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I can, but I don't have that automatically built in yet, so there's more work and I can't do it quickly

Phil

12:52

The experience of the '61 Angels and Senators probably made it clear to the Mets and Houston that they wouldn't be competitive even before the draft started. The Angels (70 wins) were probably the best realistic outcome the way the rules were structured. Hard to compare to a team that just slides into terribility.

Kevin

12:52

Can you think of any examples of a player exceeding their 99th percentile projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Hopefully there are 18-20 a year!

Tony Clark

12:53

Why doesn’t the MLBPA comment on player statements that the ball changes? It and players being threatened for sending game used balls to a scientist seem like issues they should push.

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Not sure. What it comes down to is I don't have a lot of knowledge about best PR practices for a union!

DeeBo

12:53

New playoff format (i.e., 3-game WC series in addition to 5 game LDS) has made elite starting pitching even more important, right? Feels like this is playing a part in higher than expected SP valuations

Dan Szymborski

12:54

A little premature though!

Dr Meredith Wills

12:54

could Patrick Sandoval end up getting more money as a free agent?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I think it's certainly possible that he gets a 1/8 pillow deal with an option

Kevin

12:57

Ok, what players who play full-time come to mind as furthest exceeding their 99th percentile projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

I THINK offhand it was Doyle?

Odoacer

12:57

What caused the Roman Empire to fail? And how can we draw parallels to the Yankees?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Offhand, I'd say external migration pressure, overexpansion, army capture

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

1:00

Soto projected for 583 homers, yet a SLG under .500...seem odd?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

He's not a massive doubles guy and his career BA has probably peaked already

Jon

1:01

I just don't get a projection of Tucker getting under $200 mil. How is that possible given his age and ability to pump out five wins a year?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

For one, it starts at 29 and the expectation is that his 29-35 average WAR will be less than his 23-28 WAR

GuardianKnot

1:01

Hey Dan - do you ever do ZiPS for fictional characters? Asking because in the Ultraman movie on Netflix they state that Ken Sato hit .420 with 670ish stolen bases while playing for the Dodgers, and I would love to see the career projections/contract estimate.

Dan Szymborski

1:01

They never give a full lin!

I'd love to do a Buck Bokai projection

wheelhouse

1:01

can zips game out what a player's projection would look like *if* they made one specific improvement? curious what, in a hypothetical universe, spencer jones' batting line would be with a 30.0 K%

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Yes

1:02

It's actually something agents especially like to get

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