JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/15/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/15/22

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Gr

12:43

Could you please make sure the daily ZiPS articles are published by noon ET each day? I like to read them with my lunch.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Ah, that's editorial discretion. We have a lot of other content around ZiPS, much of it more time-sensitive

12:44

Meg and Jon have to plan out what runs when and organize what pieces are coming in when from which full-timers, part-timers, or contributors

Adam

12:45

With the dust largely settled on the marquee free agents, do you think trades will pick up?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

For another week or so and then picking up closer to start of spring

Darrrrbo!

12:45

Next 5 years would you rather have Dansby Swanson or El Mago?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Well Swanson

Insert Witty Name Here

12:46

Video game need to video game nerd: have you felt similar to pro athletes that the older you get the less good you are at stuff? I can’t tell if I’m just getting worse at gaming or the technology is getting way too advanced.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Certain games absolutely.

I no longer have the reaction time to be able to snipe competitive at anything but a very casual competitive environment

12:47

And I do better in games in which teamwork and cooperation are helpful, like TF2 or Overwatch

I dont' think I'm even as precise in platformers as I used to be

and some arthritis in my fingers has started to have an effect on my piano playing as well

12:48

in a long run up or down the keyboard, I sometimes have a finger or two simply not cooperate halfway through

12:49

I actually have my switch choices in my (PC) keyboard to reflect this change

I use a heavy heavy linear switch in my spacebars because my thumbs just aren't as fine as they used to be

and I have lighter switches in keys exclusively used by my pinky fingers

12:51

So I have lighter tactiles in P and L and lighter linears in enter, left shift

Alex

12:51

As a Padres fan, should I be worried about Bogaerts' expected statcast numbers being so low in 2022?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I wouldn't

Some of that is Fenway stuff which ZiPS is already "removing" from him

Cave Dameron

12:51

Dan, if you could only eat 1 type of bread for the rest of your life what type would it be?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

challah

trophy

1

Adam

12:51

Which of the Sox teams are you more pessimistic about for 2023? What about over the next 5 years?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

White Sox simply because they have the more open fight

WherezMyMeatloaf?

12:53

Does Zips still see enough upside in JJ Bleday to think he'll be a MLB regular at some point?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Two WAR in 2023 is already down to about 15% for him in ZiPS

so there's still a *chance* but ZiPS is not bullish

Joseph

12:53

Did any of ZIPS' preseason projections suprise you a lot? If so, did it make you revaluate your priors or revaluate ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Diamondbacks for sure!

12:54

As I mentioned before, I was quite shocked how optimistic ZiPS was arbout them

Ceddanne

12:54

What inputs is ZiPS looking at when judging minor league defense?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I have a probabilistic total zone measure that I use since I have every hit ball location

It's going to obviously be worse than OAA in the majors

but using this method in the majors does have a pretty good relationship with OAA

I'd love to have even better data to improve it of course

Darrrrbo!

12:58

Favorite band formed after 2010?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

God, looking at my plays in my music library, bands formed since 2010 are increasingly sparse!

12:59

dang, Titus Andronicus has been around that long?

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