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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/18/25

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wheelhouse

12:16

what will it take for projection systems to see ben rice as a 3+ WAR player

Dan Szymborski

12:16

woudln't take that much, he was already over two in 500 PA in ZiPS

600 PA already gets him 2.5

ARKNDJL

12:16

Was also curious about Konnor Griffin - obviously not a Sleeper prospect or anything, but I was amazed to see his 80th percentile ZiPS in his rookie year project him for an absolutely scorching 5.3 WAR. Was also intrigued by the 80th percentile projections for Oneil Cruz at 4.4 WAR, I'm a long time believer in Cruz and I'm interested in the idea that even projection models can look at his player profile and see the chance of him blooming late into a star. Do you think there's any chance he gets traded? Love your work and appreciate you always

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I don't think he gets traded unless the Pirates absolutely implode

2027/2028? Maybe a different matter

Scotty

12:17

Danny Zips! What does ZIPs think Judge and Raleigh's 95% percentile HR totals are?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

64 for Judge (that's based on 140 games, which is why it sounds low)

62 for Raleigh - it still sees 2025 as not his baseline ability

Bob Bailey

12:19

Dan, I know he is a bit piece, but I didn't see a projection for Jonah Bride in the Texas report where he signed a MiL contract. Also wasn't on Minnesota or Miami where he played last yr. Does he get a projection for 2026? Thanks

Dan Szymborski

12:19

.215/.320/.319, 1.5 WAR, 90 OPS+ for Bride

Since I'm looking at late Texas additions anywya

12:20

Nimmo 244/328/393, 2.8 WAR, 112 OPS+ in left

217/301/278 Tyler Wade, 0.0 WAR, 73 OPS+

CFH

12:21

(a good bullpen just makes your team better, idk what it’s have to do with exceeding run differential)

Dan Szymborski

12:21

People HOLD the hypothesis, so I'll test it

12:21

Why is ZiPS still not completely sold on Ben Rice? I know it doesn’t care about xWOBA, but he pretty much could not have hit the ball harder or at better angles last year, and he completely tore up the minor leagues

Dan Szymborski

12:21

the translations aren't spicy - 2025 MLB was better than his previous translations

12:22

remember, offensve has gone up a lot in the high minors

matt w

12:22

I thought the story was that you annoyed Dan Ribaudo by calling him Ribaudo-matic.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

We also annoyed him by saying domo arigato, Mr. Ribaudo

now that I think of it, I probably shouldn't be tweeting last names around

Guest

12:22

projection systems seem to overrate very passive hitters in the minors. Do you agree and if so, have you made any adjustments to Zips in regards to this?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

ZiPS is usually pretty grumpy about passive hitters!

I talk about this quite a bit - people are sometimes very underwhelmed by projections of walk-heavy dudes

12:24

This is some of the easier stuff to calibrate out of a projection system

so that low hanging fruit is sadly gone

Bob

12:24

Has anyone published studies on the accuracy of defense and playing time predictions? They are a big component of WAR predictions, but the only studies I can recall seeing are about hitting rates stats.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Nto that I'm aware of. I test my own work, but I have a conflict of interest, so I mostly provide data to others that do the work

Brew Crew

12:25

Do you agree with Roster Resource that Uribe is the closer and Megill is the 8th inning guy?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I suspect that's accurate, with Megill likely next in the pecking order

NYYFan

12:25

Is Jazz Chisholm being projected for a lot of time at positions other than 2B, either by ZiPS or Depth Charts? Not sure how his projection is -6 DEF when he was +5 FRV at 2B

Dan Szymborski

12:26

For one, ZiPS mixes FRV and BIS

second, it also looks at implied ability from OTHER positions

12:27

and he was bad enough at short and mediocre enough at third that ZiPS is more conservative

Frankie

12:27

If NYY has one big transaction monetary wise left this offseason, doesn't Imai make more sense than Bellinger? Or does this hinge on Stantons outlook (ZiPs understandably down on him)?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

If you ask ZiPS at least, Imai is a real step down from both Yamamoto and Imanaga

Turang Test

12:28

Apple TV+ already has Severance and recently added Pluribus to its lineup. What else do they have to do to become the new HBO?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I dunno, I don't have apple tv!

Calvin

12:28

If big-name megacontracts (Ohtani, Judge, Tatis, Lindor) almost always work out fine enough, what archetype of contract tends to fail the most?