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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/18/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:29

megacontracts for older players and the 2-3 mid guys

NFP

12:29

Re: zips love affair, cc: dean kremer

Look At This Sotograph

12:29

Did we not get an article on your HOF ballot this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Since I talked about it so much on social media, we decided that I'd do an article on it after the break

Guest

12:29

Can Jhonkensy Noel still be a productive big-leaguer? I want it to work so badly, but ZiPS seems skeptical

Dan Szymborski

12:29

He can, but 2025 was brutal

12:30

Hey Dan can we get Mike Yaz projections? With the timing of his signing he missed both the Braves and Royals lists.

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I think I mentioned it on twitter ro bluesky?

227/327/421, 2.3 WAR, 108 OPS+

12:30

Why do ZiPS and Steamer not like Robert Suarez? Age? Lack of Ks? BABIP? All of the above? Seems like this is a tricky one because it feels like the Braves needed to sign him so taking on the risk is worth it for the upside.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

the statcast-like data has a lot that ZiPS does not like

Sharp

12:32

Does ZiPS project how a player will be used when spitting out his overall projection? Like player with an extreme platoon split might look decent in the overall projection because ZiPS projects that he'll mostly be used with the platoon advantage

Dan Szymborski

12:32

No, since ZiPS doesn't know how a player will be used, and I try to stay away from too many things where MY opinion is subbing in

naturally, I have to when doing things like projecting standings

I publish the platoon splits though, so one can always reroll a player to their liking

Chris

12:33

Aside from Skubal, who are other big name pitchers that could be traded this winter?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I think PERALTA could be if the Brewers smell an opportunity

Guest

12:34

There's been talk about the Guardians pushing Daniel Espino to the big league club before his body breaks again. There wasn't any projection for him though. Was there not enough data to make a projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I just forgot to - Espino has been injured so long that he missed the ZiPS one-year and multi-year projection cutoffs

Lars

12:34

Do you think Stearns regrets signing Soto to that contract?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Guest

12:34

Fans are usually influenced a lot by this shape of a game or a season rather than just the outcome (e.g. a 10-9 loss where they were leading 9-0 and blew the lead will end up in huge blowback compared to a back and forth game that ended with the same score, or the exact same record will be viewed very differently if a large division lead was blown). From the perspective of actually evaluating a manager's performance/team's quality though (insofar as the influence a manager can even have), do you think the way things happened is meaningful at all?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

PROBABLY not, but it also depends

Chris

12:35

Why aren’t standard deviations or errors more commonly listed? It feels like there are often small

Dan Szymborski

12:35

In what context? I do publish the 80th/20th so people get an idea of what the range is

Big Fan

12:35

I remain baffled that there are 2242 people out there who use Fangraphs more than I do. I spend an ton of time on Fangraphs, and can't stop asking myself the question "don't you 2242 people have anything better to do?"

ARKNDJL

12:35

Jonah Tong recorded a 3.96 xFIP at age 22 in the MLB, has a 70 grade fastball, has some of the most unreal iVB I've ever seen, and his minor league stats are ridiculously dominant with <3 FIP and 10+ K/9 rates across every level of the minor leagues. This is a guy who's dominated at every level at a young age and has already shown he can be, at MINIMUM, a good MLB starter. My question is, why isn't he being evaluated like it? I see an enormous ceiling in this profile, at least a 55 FV, and yet I see some people evaluating Sproat (who looks more like a RP to me) above him in the Mets system.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Are people that down on Tong? Maybe we're in different circles?

EccentricATLFan

12:35

Fun fact that I only remembered yesterday: Eric Hosmer’s contract was finally finished only this past season. Seems like a distant memory when he signed, and that contract went sooooooo badly.

Dan Szymborski

12:36

God I had so many arguments about that contract. And basically ONE of the people that were super mad at me for ripping the deal have admitted to me that they were wrong

It was so weird, back then there were actually people who thought the opt out favored the PADRES

Which is absolutely crazy. It was always going to be a five year deal if he was good, an eight year deal if he sucked

Krusty

12:37

Obviously, leverage and context stats (ex wpa, re24) aren't predictive but to what extent do you think they're informative towards future performance? And might it make a difference between pitchers (esp relievers) and position players or is it all the same?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I haven't found to much use for them in this particular context. They're good storytelling stats, which is perfectly fine

Billy Ocean

12:37

Will you run Sasaki as a SP, RP, or combo in ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Probably just going to roll with combo and adjust in March if there's a clear usage

Guest

12:38

Dan- Feel free to tell me I've been hitting the dispensary too hard...but let me know if this (probably not gonna happen) trade idea has juice: Tigers send Riley Greene (and perhaps throw in some prospect filler such as Jace Jung/Trey Sweeney/Justyn-Henry Malloy level guys that the Tigers have a surplus in currently) to the Padres for Fernando Tatis, Jr. The Tigers would get a bona-fide superstar (when healthy); Padres would get a bunch of salary relief they may want in advance of selling the team – but also get a younger, cost-controlled borderline star who they can talk themselves into having additional ceiling to explore.

Dan Szymborski

12:38

It's not the worst idea ever, but the Padres would REALLY need a pitcher if they were to consider that deal, I think

and I'm not sure they would

Yuniesky Betancourt

12:38

What team would the Grinch play for, based exclusively off his athletic talent?

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