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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/21/15
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AvatarDan Szymborski
12:48
Pretty much all 97 win teams have more go right than go wrong.
That's why regression exists.
Very rarely are teams truly better than 93 or 94 wins on paper on average when you consider the uncertainty of the outcomes
Jordan
12:48
Brad Miller in Tampa... Better?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:49
Than what? Prime Cal Ripken, no. A bag of oats? Absolutely.
Derek
12:49
So you'd permaban someone for spoiling Star Wars during this chat, but you're the one who picks the questions? So wouldn't you get permabanned? Which FG writer would you want to replace your Monday chats?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:49
They don't know if I saw it or not, so they'd possibly be spoiling it for me.
It's the principle
Zonk
12:49
You commented strongly on how much ZIPS loves Adam Warren. What do you think, is ZIPS over-valuing or are we under-valuing Adam Warren?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:49
I would take the under, but ZiPS has proven me wrong before.
Michael
12:49
Was the growing Friedman backlash/cynicism/skepticism always inevitable?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:50
Yes. Certain troglodytic LA writers didn't get smarter.
The Dude
12:50
Is the 2016 Mets rotation better or worse than the 2011 Phillies (Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt/Worley)?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:50
Wosre
Paul
12:50
How much do players take into account past fan interactions I.e fan abuse at ballparks or on Twitter when making free agency decisions?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:50
Find me one and that'll make one.
David
12:50
Lindor, Frazier, Ureshela, Kaminsky and Johnson for Areando and Cargo. Who says no first?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:50
Hopefully the Indians.
12:51
Lindor's 2015 emergence means he's more valuable than Arenado straight-up
(and I like Arenado)
12:52
And CarGo just isn't *that* valuable
Yeah, I'd happily give Gonzalez 2/37 in the free agent market. But I'm not going to spend a lot for that privilege.
Q-Ball
12:53
Indians beat writer says that the Tribe does not plan any major moves beyond Napoli and Rajai Davis. While those are useful guys, I still see them as really struggling to score runs, particularly before Brantley returns. What do you think? Should they look for another OF bat, or roll with Davis/Almonte/Chisenhall OF to start the season?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:53
They should try at least. The AL Central has no really strong teams.
Hell, the whole AL is weak at the top
Shane
12:53
Is Mookie Betts a top-20 player in baseball this year?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:53
I think it's very possible
jg
12:53
Does zips change for a guy like Miller based on a new home park/slate of opponents in arizona?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:53
Yes
Kylo Ren
12:53
How would you determine win projections if not baseline + depth WAR = Win prediction?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:54
Proper simulation that takes into account depth.
Which is how I do my predicted standings.
Adding the depth chart always makes the 2014-2015 Reds look better than they are and the 2014-2015 O's worse.
Bork
12:54
If we add up depth chart WAR, can it result in a karate chop to Cistulli?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:54
No, he gets chopped for free. But you guys get chops
Matt
12:55
How do you see Danny Valencia performing this season?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:55
with your blood still warm on the ground
And I swear to the stars that I'll burn this whole city down
j6takish
12:55
Whats worse? a team that refuses to commit to a rebuild, or a good team in contention that refuses to "go for it"
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:55
Both are bad.
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