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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/28/15
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TJ
12:24
Which of the big FA OF's signs next ?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:24
Gordon
@RationalMLBfan
12:24
take advantage of their unique home field--amount of foul territory, length of grass, watered down infield, outfield dimensions, etc. In contrast, the measurements of the courts/arenas in NBA, NFL, and NHL are standard. Yet the home winning percentage seems to be greater in non-MLB sports. Why is that? Is it due to the amount of "control" that individual players have in a game? That is, MLB is more susceptible to chance/randomness, which is an equalizer despite crafted rosters? And/or, NBA, NFL, NHL is more susceptible to the "human element" of performing in a hostile environment and therefore perform poorly on the road?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:24
Simply because there are only so many ways to take advantage of unique home field.
The Ghost of Dan O'Dowd
12:25
Corey Dickerson for Jose Iglesias. Who hangs up first?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:25
Tigers. I'm not sure they make a trade just to shift their problem position.
Kristian
12:26
who is the odd man out in the Cubs rotation? Hammel or Warren? (assuming Hendricks is the #4 starter)
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:26
I think they'll sort it out in the spring
@RationalMLBfan
12:26
I think I only typed part of my question in a previous post: Unlike other sports, MLB teams can craft their rosters to take advantage of their unique home field--amount of foul territory, length of grass, watered down infield, outfield dimensions, etc. In contrast, the measurements of the courts/arenas in NBA, NFL, and NHL are standard. Yet the home winning percentage seems to be greater in non-MLB sports. Why is that? Is it due to the amount of "control" that individual players have in a game? That is, MLB is more susceptible to chance/randomness, which is an equalizer despite crafted rosters? And/or, NBA, NFL, NHL is more susceptible to the "human element" of performing in a hostile environment and therefore perform poorly on the road?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:26
Simply put, baseball has an RNG, so the teams are simply closer in ability and many games aren't going to come down to that kind of thing.
12:27
There are only so many ways to build a baseball team.
Baseball is more a game of execution than about tactical planning.
Significant baseball decisions are on the strategic level.
Andrelton Simmons Big rig
12:29
Could Jose De Leon and Blake Snell be solid rotation arms down the stretch for their teams?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:29
I think Snell more likely this year.
But yeah
TJ
12:29
Will the White Sox make one more big move ?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:30
I think they'll try. They may not have accomplished enough last year, but they were at least familiar with what they ought ot be trying to do
j6takish
12:30
With all the talk of moving heyward to CF, are teams going to be more open about moving elite defenders up the spectrum? Ian kinsler had been a 5-10 run defender for the past few years, could he have handled shortstop all that time?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:30
It's possible. Will most likely happen with the truly elte defenders.
David
12:31
I know some people who keep on insisting that Salazar could net Pederson and De Leon and that a Bauer for Pederson or Puig straight up is fair. Can you please confirm that they are vastly under valuing how much Pederson and Puig are worth?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:31
That's a little...optimistic.
JKD
12:31
I was distinctly unpsyched about the Daniel Murphy signing until I actually compared him to Ben Zobrist and Brandon Phillips. Zobrist is the best of the bunch - but years 3 and 4 of his deal, at 37 and 38, are probably not going to be pretty. And he was injured last year, and probably fine, but - he's 35. Phillips will be later this year, has lost ISO every year for almost a decade, doesn't get on base, and is only average in the field now - and apparently wanted almost the same money as Murphy to okay the deal. Murphy will lose some games with his glove and baserunning - but win probably just as many with his bat. He's a consistent 110 wRC+ player, never misses the ball, and will only be 33 in Year 3 of the deal. The Nats, meanwhile, have Danny Espinosa under control for those same three years, and Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo on the way. If everything breaks right, Murphy maybe gets traded or maybe is a solid 400 PA bat by the end of the deal. If everything breaks wrong, they're out $23M and a year less tha
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:31
Is there a question with this?
It's not a *great* signing - giving up a first rounder does hurt.
GSon
12:32
Mike Napoli crushed at the end of the 2015 season.. Would a triple slash of .270/.370/.470 with 25 dingers and boat load of RBI's be considered at excessive expectation in 2016?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:32
Yes
SR
12:33
What position does Olivera end up playing more over the next couple years?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:33
Left unless Freeman is traded.
RotoLando
12:33
Are there any guidelines from MLB when it comes to stadium dimensions? Could a team make a large gap in the centerfield wall that goes back another 50 ft, but is only 6 feet wide?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:34
MLB has some rules about minimums and the like, which I don't have memorized
Kip
12:34
Are you able plug in different hypothetical scenarios into ZiPs just to see what would happen in extreme situations? Harper/Trout in Coors, Kershaw in Petco with best defender at every position, etc.
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:34
I can.
Guest
12:34
The Detroit media seems to think that the Tigers would be better off waiting until mid season to assess their needs rather than acquire a LF in the near term. I see the risk in going "all in" today given the number of injury prone stars, but the number of sellers has diminished in the last couple seasons. Does it make sense to wait?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:34
No. They have needs now. Not addressing needs for an entire season now because of possible needs for two months is kinda stupid.
12:35
It would be different if the Tigers were a really solid team now. They're not - they're a .500ish team that needs a lot to go right.
RotoLando
12:35
Who is your (or ZiPS') very early Comeback Player of the Year prediction?
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:35
I usually do a piece on this subject, os not pspoiling
Chris
12:35
Of the teams that are actively "rebuilding" how would you rank what the reds are doing and their chances of long term success? Playoffs annually
AvatarDan Szymborski
12:36
Rather poorly. They started too late, failed to trade two of the players they need to, and what they got for Todd Frazier is frigging awful.
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