JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/1/24

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Marcos

12:23

ZiPS' 2024 wRC+ projection for Matt Shaw is pretty fantastic considering he was facing the University of Delaware this time last year. Does it see him as a star player in a few years?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

A little prelim for that - depends on what position he sorts out eventually at and how the D is

Guest

12:24

Is AA done or does he have another truly out of left field move left in him? Multiple top FAs remain and quality depth pieces are lingering so prices might be falling. The Braves have a huge financial commitment in the pen with multiple closer-types on short term contracts. Would AA move one or more to add some position player prospect depth and/or free up cash for a FA signing on a short term contract?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I suspect thet Braves don't do anything major here

Dr. Mantis Toboggan, MD

12:24

Okay, you're the Pirates. What moves do you make to stay afloat in the division? I say more good players (specifically batter and/or pitchers). They seem to disagree.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

It's a litlte late now

12:25

But pay one good free agent $24 million than spreading it out on three mediocre guys or relievers

Jacob

12:26

What is it about Adolis Garcia that scares off projection systems? It seems he would have enough track record to at least project as an above average player

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Can't say about others

ZiPS projects him about where he is with some downside risk. He's not a young player

(ZiPS has him at 3 WAR in the depth chat playing time)

Marcos

12:27

The Ohtani/injury projection threw me for a loop. Is ZiPS not considering the type of injury vis a vis the type of player? Clearly TJS is much more serious for a SP than a DH.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Actually, ZiPS coded it correctly, I quoted it wrong

JRoth

12:28

In your 2019 article on Pedroia (before he announced retirement, but after his fate was pretty clear), you said you'd vote for him based on peak. Using B-R numbers, that's reasonable, but I don't see it in FG's numbers at all.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

31 WAR six-year peak is pretty big

And I'm peak friendly

12:30

I'd have vote dfor Santana too

But I'm in the distinct minority

And it's not just stats vs. non-stats; I'm more peak friendly than probably 90% of the voters

baseball gods laugh

12:30

Any plans to do more hand drawn ZiPS team charts like you did for “Oakland?”

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Not unless I'm feeling mean

I try not to reuse jokes TOO often

The Stranger

12:30

When you like a guy more/less than ZiPS, have you tracked what percent of the time you’re correct?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I haven't actually

Scrapper

12:30

Can you explain the difference between Bat and Bat X? You included them both as data points in today's article.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

The BAT X tends to be the upcoming versions

ZiPS has upcoming versions too, but I don't preview them - they just become ZiPS in a few years

12:31

I hope this won't happen, but if Ohtani won't throw a single pich in MLB, and spend this year as a full time DH, followed by 9 years as an outfielder with league-average defense, how big of a contract would he be worth? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I think it was 200-something when I ran the numbers for Jay?

But that's only performance-based value of course

Ohtani's a very rare player who has significant value to a team outside of the bottom line figures

Too Many Mooks

12:32

What are the odds that *every* single top 5 Mariners SP puts up more WAR than *any* single Red Sox SP?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Oh god, I can't calculate THAT on the fly

but pretty long - projections are quite variable

Anthony L

12:32

Where do you see Grayson Rodriguez's season? Was his July-September run too good to be true?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I think the upside is massive, though you shouldn't BANK on upside; I think you go in the season with the assumption that he's a B or B+ starter and be happy if your roll a seven

Phil

12:33

I am sensing a bit of a split over Ceddanne Rafaela. Many in the Boston media seem to have moved on to Abreu and Anthony, but Rafaela still shows up on a lot of prospect lists. It seems like he doesn't need to hit that spectactularly to have a decent, defense-first career--is that still reasonably likely?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

If ZiPS interpretation of the defensive data turns out to be accurate, then yes

Projection Fight Club

12:33

Why is ZIPs so much more optimistic about Richie Palacios's defense than other projection systems? I also find it interesting Eric had him as a 20 fielding grade.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

There's a gulf between scouting and my probabilistic model of minor league defense

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