JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/1/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/1/24

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JWR

12:34

It appears that most of the projection systems have St.Louis back over .500, despite their abysmal record last year. It looks like the projection systems are mostly given the Cardinals a mulligan for last season?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

The problem was the gaping wound at pitcher

starting

and while the additions aren't *exciting* beyond Gray, they ought to be much better here

Teams are never as great as they appear in a great season or as lousy as they appear in a lousy one

JWR

12:35

Article idea--Dan vs. his Beast. You could discuss 10 ZIP projections where you disagree with your creation.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

People suggest stuff like this from time to time, but I'm not sure there's a huge market for something this meta

12:36

Despite these team-by-team rundowns, I prefer writing about things that *use* projections (like the Colt Keith signing) more than writing about the projections themselves

tortycraig

12:36

really enjoyed the free agent placement article. any way to do that with trades? imagine maybe not so interesting either because 1) the results would pan out pretty similar in terms of where a Cease or someone should end up or 2) it's pretty hard to run a program which accounts for the shape of the return package from the acquiring team and then adjust for the ramifications of that loss in the analysis (e.g., are they losing a young starting OF or are they losing 4 faraway prospects w/ little impact on current projections)

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I think the problem doing it with trades is making a list of trades

laughing

1

Dan S.

12:36

Do you think Edward Cabrera is worth the risk as an Orioles trade target? The ceiling is great, but will he have the durability and control to stick as a starter?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Depends what they have to give up

I'd be interested though

baseball gods laugh

12:36

I was surprised that Jorge Soler’s 3-yr. projection was worse than Mark Vientos’. Were you?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Not really. Vientos isn't a sure thing, but there's still upside and Soler's on the back end of his career

David

12:37

With the ZIPS reports being complete, which team came in higher or lower than you would have thought?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

First ZiPS standings should be Monday

Gold Star

12:37

If BBTF really is down for good — and it sure seems to be that way, going by Furtado's "down for system maintenance" message from mid-December — what's is its legacy?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Dunno, really. It's hard to determine legacy of things you're involved in

12:38

I doubt there's a HUGE legacy

But it was a nice place to hang out and talk baseball in the era between usenet and Twitter

Daniel

12:38

Is there a reason I should believe in ZiPS more than Steamer or The Bat?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

No. Most projection systems are quite close to each other in their bottom line projections

12:39

Which is why my focus is largely on improving the OTHER things - calibrating percentile projections, careers, etc.

For any of the competent projection systems, I think the biggest value is in *what* they're providing

12:40

(This was 2023)

12:41

In wRC+ the RMSE was 20.9 points in ZiPS 21.90 in Steamer, 21.86 in THE BAT

but who cares about a point?

12:42

Nobody would make a different decision because X projection is one or two points of wRC+ less accurate

12:43

So I get into stuff like refining injury projections and playing time (outside of team decision) and variance because that's far more interesting to me

John

12:43

On the page for 2026 projections, Spencer Strider is the only pitcher that gets a projection over 4 WAR, but I would guess that the odds of there only being one pitcher to put up 4+ WAR in 2026 is actually pretty low, since there are usually a dozen or so guys who do it. What's the reason for this? Is it just a result of ZiPS clustering guys toward their 50th percentile?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

There will certainly be a lot, but we less know who they are now than we will in two years

ZiPS only projects two guys with a 50th percentile BA projection of .316

err .300

12:44

But it projects *16* players to actually do so in at least 400 PA

12:46

And 51 players with at least a 20% chance to hit .300

12:47

In official ZiPS canon, three pitchers have four-WAR projections in 2023

12:48

But 24 have at least a 20% chance to!

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