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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/12/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:24

so ZiPS at least agrees

BABIP can usually keep a good contact hitter from being TOO horrible offensively

12:25

I mean, if you're a .280 hitter, you basically start off with a .560 OPS

and with offense down around the league, a .280 non-1B infielder doesn't need to be all that good with walks/isolated power to have at least SOME value

Guest

12:25

Do you believe that AI will be able to outperform ZiPS and every other existing projection system by this time next year? Or sooner? Or later?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Not sure. ZiPS is a non-parametric model with supervised learning, and I'm not sure there are really all that many gains to eke out, especially in next year median projections

Jason

12:26

Will the Zips prospect list be posted today or tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

It's schedule for the 17th

Adam

12:27

Dodgers & Muncy just tacked on another year at $10M... still a bargain, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

yeah

1/10 is nothing

Max Muncy enjoyer

12:27

Max Muncy has frequently talked about how much he loves LA and keeps taking under market value deals. Do you have a ZIPS estimate for how much his salary should be based on his production? Curious how it compares to his actual career earnings

Ralph Eugene Meatyard

12:27

What would a realistic NYM-Freddy Peralta extension look like if they worked it out in spring training? Thanks, Dan!

Dan Szymborski

12:27

for THAT one you gotta wiat for the extensions list

Adam

12:27

If you had to pick one player from your ZiPS risers, and one from your decliners list, to appear on the opposite list next year, who would they be/

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I still think Sandy Alcantara could turn things around, he did have some games where he looked like he really should have

12:30

I could see Misiorowski as having SOME bust-y downside. A guy who walks a lot of dudes can go bad really quickly in a down scenario

Ralph Eugene Meatyard

12:30

Would ZiPs prefer Kumar Rocker as a starter or reliever? Does it have much hope for him in either role?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

ZiPS still think a healthy Rocker can be a league-averagey starter

12:31

though it does like him as a reliever. But probably still starter

Rympair

12:32

18 Team Keeper Scoresheet League. Would you keep Addison Barger or Matt Chapman. Chapman is getting long in the tooth, but still puts up good numbers. Barger's potential is up there, but with the signing of Okamoto, I'm concerned about his playing time. Which way would you lean?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I think Barger will get playing time in corners. And remember, Santander injury helps things here

I'd probably still take Chapman, though it might depend on what my roster looks like

12:33

It's too bad the Jays have'nt use Barger at 2B/SS in the majors, which he did play enough to qualify for most formats in the minors

Willie "Pops" Stargell

12:33

Thanks for the chat Dan. Appreciate all your work. Was just curious if there was a hitter, pitcher or team that your gut keeps telling you the projects are just way too high on? Way too low on?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I think ZiPS is too low on the Pirates. I think it's grumpier about the offense than I am

12:34

though I should note that one reason ZiPS is down on the Pirates is that it accepts a risk of losing Skenes due to injury, which is a very big deal.

12:35

On FG sims, Skenes always has 189 innings

ZiPS might be high on Royals by a little?

David

12:35

Is your Hamate bone intact.

Dan Szymborski