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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/12/26

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mc moohyun

12:39

How do you feel about the suganl signing for the rockies?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I think it's fine. Someone has to eat innings so that games end

Karl Hungus

12:39

How much does pitcher extension play into ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

very limited. I have a ZiPS-related stuff type thing in the mix for a future model, but it's not in there yet

12:40

I'm *very* careful about model changes. Usually my models are 2-3 years behind where I actually am

12:40

Looking at Jackson Chourio's 2026 projections and saw his ZiPS WAR, despite fewer PAs, is substantially higher than his ZiPS DC WAR. The difference appears to be largely driven by diverging defensive projections -- does this reflect ZiPS DC projecting Chourio to play more CF or something?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

There are always a few inconsistencies I can never figure out

I try to remedy them with proper positional assignments that match with the FG DC for the final projections

Joe

12:41

Thoughts on Owen Caissie's ability to become a 30/100 guy? Will the strikeouts be too much for him to keep every day playing time, even with the Marlins? Thanks

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I think it's a possibility, he ought to hit for power

Adam

12:41

If every team lost their top three players for the season, who would see their WS odds improve/decline the most?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

The Cardinals might be the improver. ZiPS projects that right around .500, but there aren't a whole bunch of great projections, but a sea of meh once you get past Winn and Wetherholt

Dodgers probably take a huge hit. Because you're likely losing 20 WAR worth of dudes, which is hard to replace

or maybe mets since you lose Lindor/Soto?

Ralph Eugene Meatyard

12:43

Jackson Holliday is good but hasn't yet been the force he was predicted to be. Is that because he's still so young, or did the industry vote too high on him initially?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I think people just don't have enough uncertainty about ANYONE really

people are also far too certain about even stars in their prime

See the wild swings between 80th/20th projections? These are actually calibrated very well over the years - uncertainty is massive

Andrew Scott

12:44

Hi Dan: how do true depth starters (e.g., SP6+) get incorporated into the 50th percentile win projections that we see on the site? For instance, I'd expect one of Bassit or Eflin to be in the starting rotation if healthy, but not both. Does it soften the landing if you roll bad injury luck during the simulations? (Maybe the real question is I don't know how injury risk factors into the projections)

Dan Szymborski

12:44

On mine, I have a generalized model that simulates a team's playing time and then goes down the depth chart filling in what it doesn't have until it's filled

12:45

It's an approach that requiers a good deal of work from me and computational work, so it's why ZiPS standings can't be an every day thing

Josh

12:45

Do you think the Brewers will likely add a 3B via FA or trade or give Jett Williams a legit shot to take over?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I think you could very well see Jett/Ortiz on the left side somewhere

12:46

I'm trying to be more believing of the Brewers being ambitious about this kind of stuff, because that's the primary reason that ZiPS keeps getting under the Brewers

*I* do a shitty job at gauging what the Brewers will actually do

12:47

if I see something in ZiPS that seems a little out there, my general conservatism tells me that teams won't really just go and do that, but the Brewers have done some of those things and I've pooh-poohed them doing it

Karl Hungus

12:47

Does ZiPS pull anything meaningful from swing path/attack angle data?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

TBD. Not in current model

Adam

12:47

Which happens first: Rockies make the playoffs or Dodgers miss the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Dodgers miss playoffs

Ralph Eugene Meatyard

12:47

Greg Maddux pitches to Barry Bonds in 2026. Who wins, apart from entropy?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I think Bonds, though it's been a while since I've seen him and maybe he's not a workout guy anymore and is all paunchy

Orange Fire

12:48

The Astros have been unable to trade Christian Walker this offseason. I gotta think the fact that he's under contract for 2027 is a big reason Dana Brown can't move him. Do you agree?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

yes

Josh

12:48

What kinds of things does zips include in its pitching projections? Stuff? Arsenal? Any statcast data?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

arsenal yes, statcast data for quite a while now

stuff type things are a work in progress

I like to develop my own solutions to these things

Ralph Eugene Meatyard