JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/16/23

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Angelus Novus

12:13

What Orioles will surprise people the most (in a good way) this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I'm certainly hoping Kremer because ZiPS has a fetish for him

12:14

I still think DL Hall could break out very quickly if things go the right way

Do we have to call him IL Hall now?

Teddy Westside

12:15

How much can a player getting a cup of coffee in the big leagues affect their projection for the next season? For example, how much better is G. Henderson's projection given his performance in 132 ABs?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

It's not really a big difference given how good his translations were

Punk in drublic

12:15

Why do you think ZIPs is down on Tony Gonsolin comparing to his results LY. Was last year really a career year for him?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I mean, he already was a run better than his FIP last year and didn't have a history of being this good

ZiPS is the *kindest* to him!

12:16

3.54 ERA in ZiPS vs. 4.25 THEBAT and 4.38 Steamer

Old Prospector

12:16

What do you think is the best way (or a way many haven’t thought of) for a dynasty/fantasy baseball enthusiast to use your projection system to clean useful info?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Well, ZiPS DC.

Baseball fan

12:17

Harold Baines had a 4.3 BWAR (4.8 FWAR) in 1984. Did any HOF'er have a worse best season than this?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

If you hang on, I can get the worst best fWAR for HOFers.

I'm just going to do hitters because reliever and stuff

Oaktown Blues

12:17

During Drew Rucinski's 4 years in the KBO he had BB/9s of 2.28, 2.80, 2.77, and 1.52, but ZiPS projects him for a 3.73 BB/9. Is this due to his age, the fact that he put up those numbers in a lesser league, or his previous MLB experience being weighted more heavily than I expect?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

ZiPS thinks of the KBO as an AA 1/2 league, so there's a translation hit

Chris

12:18

How does ZIPS account for Eddie Rosario’s mid season eye injury and surgery? Is there an adjustment for specific injury types when trying to project future seasons?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

There is, but it's not granular enough to capture something like this

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:19

I can’t believe Zips predicted the 2023 Phillies to miss the playoffs? /s

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Punches!

Derek

12:19

What player or team projection does Dan the human disagree with ZiPS on the most?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I haven't really sat down and thought about it. My brain's basically been fried for three weeks.

12:20

The last couple team of ZiPS was a race against the clock because both my mom and sister were violently ill and I could feel my lungs start to get cloudy

It's why you haven't seen as much of me as normal last few weeks.

Mom eventually was in the hospital for three days with double pneumonia

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:21

Re: Drellich’s book. Take a shot each time he describes Kevin Goldstein as “punk rock”

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I *do* have Kevin in WWE2K

12:22

Liz

12:23

I hope you're feeling better! Do you watch spring training games in a typical year, and do the rules changes make you any more or less likely to watch any this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I do, though I most follow individual players *within* games than really the game itself.

More likely to watch spring training because I'm curious about the effects

12:24

I don't have a problem with the rule changes except for zombie runners becoming permanent.

I think it is a bit of a problem -- though overrated by many -- that MLB offense is basically "solved" so I don't mind them altering the meta to possibly incentivize other styles of offense

Smiling Politely

12:24

Many of us are probably wondering about the Giants projections in ZiPS. Were you surprised by how the NL West looked wrt to SF?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Yeah, Giants about 3 wins higher than expected

Cave Dameron

12:26

What's the most impressive baseball play that you witnessed live on television? Thank you Dan, very cool!

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Devon White's WS catch maybe?