JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/16/23

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Peter

12:26

Do you think that Austin Riley will maintain the gains he had last season or slide back to more of his career norm? I'm not sure there is another level he can get to.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I think he'll regress slightly and then improve from there

Carl

12:26

Why is ZiPS right to be higher on the Cardinals than most other projections systems? Why is it wrong to?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I don't know yet if ZiPS is right to be higher!

Though my methodology for seasonal play tends to make Cards/Rays look better than others since I try to estimate the value of depth

The 6ix

12:26

Bally bankruptcy is a case of corporate malpractice, not anything to do with MLB or sports broadcasting viability.

Zac Lowther of the Hill People

12:27

Are playoff odds called "odds" because it is odd the O's have a 10% chance of making the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

It's because we're all sometimes a little sloppy with terminology

Mitchell

12:28

Hi Dan, you're indeed the man. My question concerns the playoff odds, in which I know your involvement ends at the handing over of your projections. However, I thought you might still have insight into them. I'm curious about the difference between projected WAR and win totals, especially with a more balanced schedule. For instance, Cleveland is projected to be worth more wins above replacement than SF, Milwaukee, and Seattle, but fewer team wins. I'm curious how to grapple with this. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I honestly don't know.

I don't play with the innards in there at all.

Mike

12:28

The Twins seemingly solved their biggest issue from last year, depth. Am I just a homer thinking they could win 90?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

They COULD, it's just not their mean projection.

Zac Lowther of the Hill People

12:29

What was the ZiPS projection this year where you went "oh, that can't be right" but then it was?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Addison Barger. He popped up at the very start when I was doing test runs

Worm Turner

12:29

Is it just me, or does it seem like little rule changes that no one has asked for (mound visits? really?) seem to now be annual feature of MLB. If so, shouldn't the fans be able to submit/ vote on proposals—that would be a "better game" IMHO.

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I'm not sure fans are particularly well equipped to evaluate the consequences of rule changes

For instance, some of the stuff that's cut down doesn't save a lot in pure time

but it saves a lot in time in which nothing is happening.

It's not the length of games that's a problem, it's the dead time within the games.

12:31

And quite frankly, in the same way I find blitz chess more compelling to watch than standard timings, I think time pressure is a good function to have in most sports.

Zac Lowther of the Hill People

12:31

Like those AI sites, are you teaching ZiPS how to draw pictures of, oh, I don't know, Rob Manfred in "Land of the Lost"?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Ha, integrating GPT-3 into ZiPS is beyond my skillset

12:32

But I did think my Manfred ones were fine AI work!

12:33

Zac Lowther of the Hill People

12:33

Avocado on a BLT to make it a BLAT?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Meh

I'm not a huge avocado guy

the mouthfeel never is quite right for me

I like guac in certain applications

Ben

12:33

Does ZIPS take into account the Statcast data or the quality of pitching a batter faces? For example, it has Kim repeating last year despite bad EVs and barrels. And he absolutely demolished position players pitching (2 HRs and 1 2B).

Dan Szymborski

12:33

ZiPS does take this kind of data into account

Craig

12:33

Any NL SP that you found to have better ZiPs projections than you expected? Pfaadt, Flaherty, Drey Jameson, DeSclafani, Elder all come to mind for me.

Dan Szymborski

12:34

That's a pretty good list actually

Dan

12:34

If Judge has several more seasons like last year and then a career ending injury for what number of seasons would the Yankees be happy they signed him? Do they have injury insurance on him to make the real answer less than one even if they can't admit that?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Depends how many they get!

I'm honestly not sure the current status on injuries. Some years back, teams were having trouble getting insurance at reasonable rates as insurers were becoming more wary. I'm not sure what the current status is around baseball; I simply haven't given it much thought in a long time.

Kevin

12:35

This morning a friend and I were debating the percent likelihood the Rockies would finish at .500 or better this year. What would ZIPS say?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

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