JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/16/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:46

Colton

12:46

Does ZiPS ever run projections for draft prospects?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I only run college-only players if I really have to

MilwaukeeBeerJays

12:46

Good morning Dan. You ever mess around with sous-vide? It's a GAME CHANGER.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I actually haven't

Pedant Pete

12:47

Please tell the owners of the site to stop calling it a 'ghost runner'. The runner in extra innings is very real, has corporeal form, and thus is not ghostly in any way.

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Well, idiotic rule runner would be most accurate

12:48

Dan

12:48

I was playing what and gave myself the benefit of hindsight and convinced my hypothetical employer to give me a 233 million budget. I figure signing one of the big 4 SS instead of Brandon Dury, a second tier starter and signing the other people the same way the real life Angels did is the best case scenario and that still leaves them as a lower end wild card being their most likely result.

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I think Correa gets them fairly close to the Astros

SH, Jr.

12:49

I’ve long thought that there seems to be a positive bump in long-term outlook for a guy who gets called up and doesn’t completely self-immolate, on-field and off. Do you evaluate “non-disastrous call up” as a factor independent of actual production during MLB playing time?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

No, I do not.

Jay

12:49

How much do you expect the new rules to inflate SB totals? Last year Jon Berti led the league with 41 SBs. Do you think someone gets to 50 this year? 60?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I think it will be more muted than in the minor leagues

But we'll have an uptick

Joe

12:50

How heretical is it for me to say I like the corporeal runner rule?

SH, Jr.

12:50

Could ZiPS suggest a reasonable lower standings effect for a Manfred Man extra-inning win? Like, that’s only really 1/3rd as good as a 9-inning win?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I'm not sure I'm following

Guest

12:51

Do you think ashby gets a starting gig when healthy?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Yes

Keefths

12:51

Any particular thoughts on Miguel Vargas, ceiling seems a bit low for him. I don't how much to believe his ISO numbers from the PCL

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Yeah, we have to take minor league hitter numbers with a larger grain of salt than through the 2000-2020 period

big dan mcgraw

12:53

Can the Yankees cut Montas and save money?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Well, they could save the MLB minimum if another team signed him

otherwise no

12:55

In the past, contracts for MLB arbitration-eligible players that agreed on contracts to avoid arbitration weren't guaranteed until opening day

and teams would only have to pay 30 days or 45 days termination pay depending in timing of release

but that changed in new CBA

12:56

Yankees/Montas agreed on a deal to avoid arbitration hearing

so that became guaranteed right there and then.

SH, Jr.

12:56

Follow up - I’m thinking of a corollary to some hockey leagues that award fewer standings points for overtime wins versus regulation wins. Could a projection system be used to do something comparable in baseball — an extra innings win being a fractional “win” in the standings?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Meh, I don't like the system but I don't see this as an improvement

Joe

12:56

Odds the Orioles leaving Grayson Rodriguez off the OD roster?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

I think it's fairly likely

though he'll be up fairly quickly

Evan Carter Believer

12:57