JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/16/23

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Guest

12:35

Between PECOTA / Steamer / The Bat / Zips, Zips is the only projection with a higher WAR (5.8) for Adley Rutschman than for Julio Rodriguez (5.4).

Reasons for Zips relative exuberance for Rutschman?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

It's hard to say because I don't run the other systems.

Big dan mcgraw

12:36

Dan

12:36

The giants were projected to win 88 games and the padres 91. Aaron Judge should be 5 wins better than their current corner outfielders. Would the giants be favorites in the west with judge or would they have not signed a couple good players the real giants signed because they already spent the money on judge?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

It does seem like this would be the case

Colton

12:36

On the topic of switch hitters, can ZiPS do projections for guys if they didn't switch hit? I'm assuming this would just mean a projection where they only face one side for a full season, but would it be able to use ratios to see what to possible expect if someone gave it up like Mullins did?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

It can, but it's not "stock" so I have to do some extra work

J!mmer

12:36

Eric Thames retired this morning
man was that guy fun to watch for a while

Green Thumb

12:37

Any gardening in store this year Dan? I've managed to grow a ginkgo sapling from a seed that I collected from a neighbor; I'm quite proud of it.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I'm not outdoorsy

I basically have grass and trees.

Guest

12:38

why is everyone down on a barely 23 year old Tucupita Marcano who has hit FAR FAR better than a 24YO Jarred Kelenic and has much more versatility and still the ability to hit 12-15 hrs and steals and nowhere near his peak?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

That's extremely speculative too

Neither have hit in the majors but Kelenic has the better minor league record

Twinkie

12:40

Do you think Carlos Correa will hit 30+ home runs this year or ever? The kind of money he is getting seems to project that his best years are yet to come.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I don't think he needs to hit 30

H'ell probably hit 30 *some* year

Guest

12:41

Going through the remaining free agents, I was surprised to see Rougned Odor projected for a 101 wRC+ by ZiPS. Any idea what it sees in him specifically?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I believe ZiPS simply thinks he has more power upside than Steamer does

John

12:41

If a team’s players played at an average of their 60th percentile projection, how far higher than its 60th percentile projection would the team’s result be? I’m trying to get my mind around the level Rockies players would have to play at for the team to achieve the .500 record the owner said is possible.

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I'm not actually sure off-hand

Alex

12:42

You've got Vaughn Grissom as a 2-win player, which I found surprising (though as a Braves fan it was a pleasant surprise!) — and with Alan Trammell and Tony Fernandez as comparable players, my head is kind of spinning. What is the system picking up on in Grissom that is pointing towards a Hall of Very Good/Hall of Fame-type career?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I mean, dude's got an >.850 minor league OPS through age 21 and he was really good in his cup of coffee

ZiPity doo-dah

12:43

While running teams' projections do you just play noises of zippers in the background?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

dear god no

SH, Jr.

12:43

How long do you think it will be until we have a full sense of how consolidation of the minors affected age-level adjustments in models? Or are we there already?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Between this and the COVID season it'll be hard to separate. I think we'll have something really interesting to look back on at the end of the decade.

Nate

12:44

Are you sold at all on Chas McCormick as a legit starting CF now? I love the guy...but keep eyeing what the A's are going to do with Laureano thinking he might be a nicer fit for the Astros in CF. Especially since it sounds like Brantley may not even be a lock to be back by opening day

Dan Szymborski

12:44

As a decent starter, I'm sold. But he's not a long-term piece.

Pedro

12:44

Aren't people underselling the White Sox? They had a huge number of injuries last year (Grandal, Anderson, Eloy, Robert, Moncada, Lynn), and if just half of those players are healthy, the team will do considerably better. Beni signing also allows Vaughn to move to 1B and improves the defense.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

It's possible, but how many White Sox players do you feel better about than last year at this time?

Because injuries *will* happen

And the Sox depth is not good

TomBruno23

12:45

A Tink Hence ZiPS would pair real nice with MILB.tv coming to MLB.tv for 2023.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

He only gets a projection for the purpose of ZiPS Top Prospects

fraser

12:45

vidal brujan - nothing more than reserve pick for roto leagues, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

That's probably accurate

SH, Jr.

12:46

A take I’ve seen: Rule changes are mere tinkering, the core issue is that pitchers are too awesome, everything that isn’t lowering the mound is asinine if the goal is more on-base action. Agree?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

It's possible, but there's nothing wrong with being gradual with changes

Dan

12:46

Would 360 million be a good price for 3 straight 10 WAR seasons?

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