JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:14

ZiPS knows when players of a similar age have disappeared, it just doesn't know why

Moog Powell

12:15

Which is more likely:

A blernsball league independently forms and it's success comes that the expense of baseball, causing baseball to die

or

Baseball slowly morphs into blernsball?

Appa Yip Yip

12:15

Would a package of flaked spicy beef jerky soaked in beef stock or water until soft then heated up technically meet your definition of chili? Beef minced fine, chilis, spices. I'm seeing all the ingredients

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I guess technically? Just kind of an odd chili?

Not every chili is necessarily a GOOD chili

Guest

12:16

T/F: If Juan Soto had Cody Bellinger's 2021 season, he would still be worth > $350 million.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Oh, that's fun. Hang on

12:18

False. ZiPS says $313 million

though that's slightly WORSE than Bellinger's year because Soto isn't a CF

Gilberto

12:18

I'm on the players side pretty much absolutely. But, part of me can't help but feel they did this to themselves. For so many CBAs they sacrificed the earnings of minor leaguers and younger players for the established players. Now that teams have figured out established players aren't worth it they suddenly care, but where was this 10 years ago?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

It was always hard to be a complete dick to Weiner, a guy people liked who was quietly fighting a terminal disease at a young age with great courage, but those years were really bad for the MLBPA and they kinda had a "go along" attitude

And a lot of where they are are those seeds

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:19

What does ZIPS say is Wander Franco's age-90 projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

TooDamnTall

12:19

It's 1am in my timezone and I should get to bed, but I just need some DanTime

Dan Szymborski

12:19

This sounds sexual too. Let's keep it PG!

Ben

12:19

Are the ZiPS projections for free agents based on a neutral park or the home park of their last team?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

last team

Jfast

12:20

What are some of the intangibles you hope you'll be able to more accurately quantify (or bake into ZiPS) in 10-20 years?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I want better injuries for one

I'm working on a save model - trying to model team's intent with stuff like contract length and time with team

ZeroGravitas

12:20

it seems weird that the base salaries don’t have built-in inflation adjustments. Isn’t that pretty much standard issue for union deals in any industries?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I can't say cross industry

12:21

MLB's proposal is basically a near-hard salary cap, with no floor, and a cap that increases by 0.94% a year. That's clownshoes

Slapshot

12:21

What are your thoughts on that beer/chili "cocktail" that Cincinnati airport came up with last week?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Reference my Brian Jordan discussion on Twitter yestdraay

Sirras

12:21

Is there a projection ZIPS has for this coming season that particularly amuses you, whether for good or bad reasons?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I'm amused that the best Mariners projection is a guy who has topped out at AA so far! And that I don't disagree!

12:24

Also ZiPS giving no Pirates pitcher a 1.5 WAR projection

Sirras

12:24

Barry Bonds, let's say 2015 - still projected to be above replacement?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

A tthis point? probably no

12:25

ZiPS doesn't really have much to say about a guy a decade after they retire

Yuniesky Betancourt

12:25

Would you rather fight 25 squirrel-sized Yuniesky Betancourts or 1 Yuniesky Betancourt-sized squirrel?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

The latter. The Royals would offer him nuts and get me out of trouble

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:25

On Monday, Kevin shared that he was enjoying a leftover bowl of Cincinnati chili for lunch. Many people believe that traditional chili (even what you would define as chili) is often better on the second day. Do you think this applies to Cincinnati style?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

It does because it gives me 24 hours to plan either another meal or to escape to another locality

Moog Powell

12:26

What's something you desperately want to be wrong about, but pretty certain you are correct about?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

The whole afterlife thing

I'd really like to see my dad and grandparents and four of my cats again. But I don't believe I will.

12:27

Kinda bleak for noon on a Thursday, but you asked!