JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/22

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asnbrv

12:27

historically, does really 10% of all players exceed their 90th percentile projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Yes

12:27

Baseball book recommendations?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I'm so behind right now honestly

Tom

12:27

Am I right in thinking Trevor story has kinda gone from one of the top free agents to someone who’s not considered to be in the top tier anymore? If so why?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Just that he had a relatively meh 2021 and there's someone a LOT more exciting at his position

Sirras

12:28

Which is more interesting to you - different good/bad teams every year or dynastic teams? Let's say this is over a 5-7 year period

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I like a good mix

and I need at least one or two stunningly incompetent teams for me to make memes about

12:30

Guest

12:31

If I put a single kidney bean in a 50-gallon vat of chili, is it no longer chili?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

It could be an ccident

Sirras

12:31

Who ended up winning the presidential brawl?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

lol, we didn't do the final four because at the time, we switched chat providers and this one didn't have polling yet

and by the time it had polling, the momentum was gone

MilwaukeeBeerjays

12:31

Sir Dan of zipsland! Have you poked your nose into the world of video game speed running? If you haven't you should. Blind punch-out! Beating FF1 in 2 hours!

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Not personally

I like watching people compete

12:32

But I don't desire to speed run myself. I want to sit back and enjoy games.

I don't want to beat Final Fantasy VI in 31 minutes

12:33

I want to wait for Shadow. I want to fight the demon in the painting at Owzer's house. I want to finish Locke's quest for Phoenix.

Jfast

12:33

Which baseball player has wow-ed you the most in person (for whatever reason)?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Soto because he's a guy who can barely drunk and has better plate discipline than Joey Votto

Dalton Wilcox

12:33

What’s the pandemic’s impact on ZiPs formula/s? Esp for minor leaguers?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Not really a formula

12:34

but it does make the projections less accurate

since we have less data

Sean

12:34

The fact that Julio has the highest M's projection doesn't bode well for their playoff drought, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

ZiPS isn't really down on the M's, especially if they make more additions

it just REALLY loves Rod

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:34

If you order a chili dog, but the chili contains beans, is it no longer a chili dog? Is it just a sloppy stew dog?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

It's a hot dog with meat-and-bean stew used as a condiment

Guest

12:35

do you feel like you personally have good player evaluation skills with out Zips? Could you be an ok scout type? Or are you just a smart guy who made a great tool?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I think I'd be a good but not amazing scout

Better if I had spent the time making and working ZiPS on scouting

Toucan

12:35

Hi Dan! Does ZiPS know about a player's teammates and/or lineups so it can project R/RBI, or is that just based on the player's individual offensive projection? Basically the same question for pitchers - does it it know about bullpen strength or defensive quality for things like ERA?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

ZiPS knows *generally*

12:36

since it's at the offseason, it has a simpler model

since we don't know exact players

It's the Yips!

12:36

Michaela Schiffrin has the clearest case of the Yips (Steve Sax disease) I have seen since Chuck Knoblauch & Rick Ankiel. Yet every commentator treats her falls this Olympics like an unsolveable mystery. IT'S THE YIPS! Sad for her...the yips is brutal and nothing you can consciously do will make it better.

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