JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 2/20/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 2/20/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:30

The fact is, baseball has been one of my primary interests since I was four

In kindergarten and first grade, I use to fill otu those black and white composition books with stats

So the truth is, I'm never really FULLY off

12:32

That's one reason video games are a good casual activity for me, because it's something that's REALLY hard for me to multitask unless it's an RPG

Like most of my TV watching will end with me doing work and kinda listening to the TV

Guest

12:32

I, like you, have a pretty internet-dependent job. Do you ever think about what you'd do in the case of a worldwide internet outage? I think I'd have to get like, a job stocking shelves or something.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Depends how long this internet outage is!

12:33

If we're talking more than a few years, I'd have to change fields

oldDude

12:33

I for one would love to read about zstuff, particularly if you can calculate it in excel!

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I might write some this winter

John

12:33

Since a team that scores 700 runs and allows 600 has a higher projected winning % than one that scores 800 and allows 700, aren't runs prevented a tiny bit more valuable than runs scored? Does that make enough of a difference to change how we view pitchers versus batters value?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

It's not enough of a difference; it's mostly just a quirk in a simple model rather than anything helpful

bumper

12:34

How does ZiPS evaluate first basemen in the minors? Is there receiving credit?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Something like scoops is out of ZiPS ken. It's hard enough to do in the majors (and even then, only a few runs one way or the other and quite volatile)

12:37

But for instance, on grounders, I know the direction of every ball hit

12:38

For example, the grounds most likely to become outs, in MLB and hte minors

12:39

are those hit (with straight up through second base as 0 degrees) 16 degrees (90.1%), 15 degrees (89.9%)`, 17 degrees (89.7%), 14 degrees (89.5%), -17 degrees (89.4%), -16 degrees (89.3%), and so on

12:41

whiel the grounders with the lowest chance of being outs are the three degrees closest to first, the three degrees closest to third, then 0 and one degree on either sice of second

12:44

Buldak

12:44

Hey Dan, it’s Joe from BlueSky, the one pestering you with all the ramen content. Anyways, ZiPS seems to have a crush on Owen Caissie and would just like to get some context on that. Caissie doesn’t seem to have the caliber glove (per existing reports) that your model loves, so I take it the model is more bullish on him cutting his k rate and actualizing his peak? Thanks for everything you do Dan, as always.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

K rate is overrate for good offensive players

in the minors

I call this the Kris Bryant Rule

Now, Caissie's not projected to be anywhere as good as Bryant

but the principle is the same

12:46

One of the biggest risks for an offense-first prospect is *passivity*

Good offensive prospects are hitting well against minor league pitchers (or they wouldn't be good offensive prospects)

12:47

they're *incentivized* to put the ball in play and minor league pitchers are giving them more hittable crap than MLB ones would

I use Bryant because after the aggressive projections, a lot of people in chat pointed out that he struck out a lot in the minors

12:48

Now, you want guys making contact

but it's just LESS of a big deal for good hitters

And whether or not Caissie tightens things up against MLB pitchers, that's one of the things that will determine what he ends up being

Trader Joe

12:49

When can we expect Fangraphs to have an equivalent BaseballTradeValues type tool?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Not anytime soon, if ever, I don't imagine

I dont' think that's a priority and we have a lot of other stuff to work on

Quarantino Martinez

12:49

My cat has taken to nibbling on any textile that has a glimmer of food: tea towels, tablecloths, sweater sleeves. What is her Zips MLB GM comp? Is she an Elias, nibbling on the edges, ensuring that the final object is still good but not suitable for the World Series? A Brian O'Halloran, opportunistically getting hers even if it means taking on some linen-based bloat? Or a Friedman, who just thinks everything out there belongs to her?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Preller maybe? He's always doing SOMETHING even if not always good

Oddball Herrera

12:50

Who is your pick for the yearly “guy who runs a 1.000 OPS in spring training and then brutally stabs his unrealistic fantasy owners in the back when real games start” award? Well call this the Akil Baddoo Switcheroo

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Ah, but if we could predict the spring guy, then he woudln't be the spring guy!

Tiger Fan

12:51

Just curious, does ZiPs use AFL data with prospects? Or purely minor league regular season?

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