JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 2/20/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 2/20/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:51

As with college data, only when it really HAS TO

Bob Loblaw

12:51

Should the Cubs sign Trevor Bauer?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Carson

12:51

Is it embarrassing I am hoping I believe that Michael McGreevy can be a Kyle Gibson type? I see room for him to be a solid 5 in the majors. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Nothing wrong with eating innings

Most baseball players aren't great ones

12:52

I'm not going to win a BBWAA lifetime achievement award

Most of the restaurants you love near you aren't getting Michelin stars

Bob Loblaw

12:52

What does ZiPS look like? Anything like WOPR from War Games?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

12:55

Unless I'm making the backup server crunch numbers (which I frequently do)

https://photos.fife.usercontent.google.com/pw/AP1GczNMpwxt4snd38nDzAzh...

$$$$$$

12:55

NOMB...is ZIPS your main source of income? REALLY NOMB.....is your annual income> $100K.

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Not going into detail, but FanGraphs is my primary employer.

I write a lot too!

Matt VW

12:56

How would you sort the Red Sox's emerging positional farrago?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

In a way that would make Rafael Devers really pissed at me

Klubot3000

12:56

Do you know if we'll get college leaderboards now that some of those college data are on FG?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

Not sure, I can ask

Guest

12:56

what odds would you have to get to put $100 on yourself winning a BBWAA liftime achivement award? I believe in you, I'd do it for 10,000 to 1!

Dan Szymborski

12:56

300-to-1

Aaron

12:57

Loved seeing ZiPS so high on Cole Young. His production over his last 46 games age 20 in AA was very similar to Jackson Merrill's 46 game production a year before at the same age in the same league. (323/.433/.437/.870 for Young; .273/.338/.444/.782 for Merrill). Does ZiPS factor in that recent of a comp?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

ZiPS will find the comp, but if there's limited or no data after the comp year, it won't use the player

Buldak

12:58

If you could build a player that ZiPS would be absolutely in love with while still being “under the radar” by more traditional assessments, what would that player’s skillset look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

slightly older, better defensive numbers than you'd expect from their athleticism,

mmddyyyy

12:59

With 2023, 2024, prospective 2025 free agents, when their stats come up in an article most authors include a caveat for the 60 game 2020 season. Do you think that caveat will stop appearing in our lifetimes?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

It'll fade away, except when a guy is close to a milestone

and it makes a difference

Richard

12:59

Would you be willing to share a ZIPS projection for Tucker or Vlad's next contract?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I'm doing a Vlad piece for MOnday!

mmddyyyy

12:59

do baseball teams do the Wonderlic test?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

I haven't heard of them doing it, but that's not really a side that I get involved in

Guest

1:00

another q about how you work... when you do consulting for teams, are you just like, "sure! beep boop beep!" and then you print out what zips gives you? Or are you making significant algorithmic / output decisions that are considerably more work than your day to day?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

It's a very tricky situation, so 20 years ago, I had to make the decision to be very strict with confidentiality wall

1:02

I simply report the specific thing that is asked and provide the report. I don't offer any opinions or advice or even any advising of what data someone *should* get, every team gets the same rate as every other team with all requests accepted, every player-agent gets the same rate as every other player-agent

1:04

I don't make sales pitches, and everything I do, except for the required IRS reporting, I take to the grave.

1:05

And this has worked out well over the years. I've sold *something* to more than half the teams. My ideal would be to do everything completely blind, but people in front offices want to talk to me, not a middleman representative

1:07

One exception on the same rate: I don't charge players who are not on a 40-man roster or an MLB free agent for basic long-term projections.

Okra

1:09

Sox should have had made sure Devers was okay with move to 1B before signing Bregman, right? Unless they trade from their position player surplus the team is best with Bregman at third.

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