JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:07

Ack, I'm here!

Got lost fuming on Twitter

Placido Polanco fan club president

12:08

Just read Ben Clemens' article about team depth. Don't the ZiPS projected standings account for depth? Does ZiPS handle depth differently than the way proposed in Ben's article?

Dan Szymborski

12:08

Sort of. ZiPS always has a generalized model that varies the playing time availability of top players so sometimes those Plan Bs or Cs or Ds get a lot more playing time than you expect

12:09

For example, in that one run in the AL projections that I alluded to for the O's, the O's mostly ended up with David Banuelos and Michael Perez catching

Harry Lime

12:09

Can you suggest any articles that talk on late round players for deep drafts? thx

Dan Szymborski

12:10

That's more a Zimmerman Q!

Angelus Novus

12:10

O's have a ton of good position players. When will we see Mayo? Do they need to make a trade to free up room?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

They may need to trade, but I don't think it'll be before the start of the season

I think they'll take a wait and see approach

Jeremy

12:12

When looking at the 2024 Pre-Season Projections, "Fantasy" dashboard, how are the players sorted by default? Doesn't seem to indicated the "sort on" metric.

Dan Szymborski

12:12

Looks like it's still sorting by the WAR order

David M

12:12

Nl only keeper...down to one of these 3. Pfaadt, B Garrett or Bohm

Dan Szymborski

12:12

depends who is available if you don't keep. I'd probably go with Pfaadt

Refugee

12:12

When you analyze MiLB data, do you have a way to filter PA or IP versus comparable (let's say top 100 or top 150) prospects as to avoid showing a guy feasting on mediocre competition?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

No, not really. But those guys don't hang around at levels very long

Refugee

12:13

Is there hidden criteria for stats to be indexed? My impression is that indexing is an ideal way to put a stat in context, but I've found that how far it strays from 100 can be misleading. A 111 Stuff+ changeup was the best among all qualified starters in 2023. A 111 Stuff+ slider was 11th. I know it would be clunky to add standard deviation to every index stat, but couldn't it be useful?

Side note: for stats like OPS+ or wRC+, do you also find a way to index by position?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I don't usually. Generally speaking, I think OPS+/wRC+ speak for themselves, at least they do with me

I try to avoid stats ABOUT stats where possible. I think it's better for someone to have the long term knowledge that a 110 OPS+ is mediocre for a 1B but very good for a SS rather than try to distill it even further

tumtum

12:14

When does ZiPS see Semien hitting the age curve?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Like most players his age, there's a slightly increasing risk every year

Question marks

12:15

Both Alex Kirilloff and Kerry Carpenter are 26 and have question marks after their names: Kirilloff, his health and whether he'll be platooned; Carpenter, his horrid second half and wherther he'll be platooned. Who would you rather invest in?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I think Carpenter's safer, but Kirilloff missing a lot of time from injuries makes him more uncertain and thus, more upsidey

Guest

12:16

Who are the biggest ZiPS movers after the first few games of Spring Training? For example, Nolan Jones is hitless in 10 PA with 4 Ks already.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I don't do spring so nobody's moved! lol

Who's Fabio?

12:16

Dan, is it too early to start thinking about Deadlinesmas? The Jays didn't do much this offseason so I'm hoping for something spectacular in July.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I think it's tough until April at least

Edgar scores, Junior scores, they all score

12:17

O's prospect Enrique Bradfield seems to have a nice hit tool, and his speed is off the charts. He seems to be the second coming of Mickey Rivers. Why isn't he a higher-ranked prospect?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Well, you'd have to ask Eric and Tess if it's about the FG rankings

As for ZiPS, it just doesn't have a lot to go on

12:18

and college stats, which ZiPS does use when it has to, are really erratic in value

And let's just say his 2023 Vandy translation did not go well

Donut holestein

12:18

Do you personally agree with the ZIPs projection of Adolis Garcia?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I think it's fair

12:19

We're talking a 31-year-old player; there are for more chutes than there are ladders and it only gets worse from here

Eric

12:19

After MJ Melendez's horrible first half, he hit .273/.352/.485 in the second half and finally tapped back into his power. ZIPS sees him bouncing back as well. Thoughts on a potential breakout?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Bearish on a breakout. ZiPS hasn't found a ton of value in chopping up the season

Refugee

12:19

Should two-seamers and sinkers be tracked separately? They have different columns in all of FG's dashboards, but it seems like nobody is being categorized that way, which I find hard to believe.

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Pitch tracking is tricky in that it's not simply a cluster analysis exercise, you also have to give classifications that fans are familiar with or they'll just not care and not use it

Smitty*

12:20

oh, and don’t you hate pants?