JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/23 | 2/29/2024

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:21

I love working at home so I can mostly just wear gym shorts. Ah, mesh gym shorts, the working man's silk

laughing

1

>this guy<

12:21

Dan have you had the neural network or Copilot create any chili recipes?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I have not

wait, I HAVE

but I don't use the AI that tries and give you right answers because that's no fun

Inferkit's GPT implementation is way more fun

(it's rawer and less focused on the correct answer)

12:23

trophy

2

Mason

12:24

Does players not signing till into spring really make anyones lives worse?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

No

Because it's not really about that, and MLB hopes stupid people will buy that

yawn

1

Guest

12:25

Dan fuming on Twitter? glad i just re-joined after deleting the old account

Guest

12:25

Aliens are going to invade Earth, and you don't have access to ZiPS. They ask you to project the top 30 players with the highest batting average for this season. What 5 metrics do you look at?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

BA, contact rate, strikeout rate, BABIP, walk rate

Romorr

12:26

Don't you love it when people overreact to Spring Training stats? Always makes me laugh. Anyway, Coby Mayo should be the Orioles opening day 3B, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

They'll see what happens at AAA I'm sure

Guest

12:27

Is this your first ever leap day chat?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Maybe?

12:28

Leap Year was a Monday in 2016, lemme see

12:29

Nope, did one in 2016

party

2

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-2-29-16-120...

12:30

Remember, while FanGraphs didn't hire me until 2018, I've been doing chats longer than that as ESPN gave me permission

Andrew P

12:31

If the Red Sox sign Montgomery, how much higher does their rotation move in the league rankings? I think they were at 18 or 19 right now

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Given how closely clumped teams are, Montgomery LOOKS like it would bump them to the 11th-14th range in our depth charts for SP

JV19

12:31

Does ZIPS ever have weird probability distributions? Similar to (I think) Chris Mitchell had on prospects where some had bi-modal distributions on FV. I remember some were 60/10/10/10/20 for bust, 40, 50, 60, 70 for example.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

It does! I noted a few years ago that there were two pitchers that had significantly bimodal distros: Tanner Scott and Michael Kopech

Matt Waters

12:32

Although Elly De La Cruz understandably gets ample pub, I am extremely bullish on the futures of Encarnacion-Strand and Will Benson for the Reds. How do you feel about these players, Dan?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Moreson on CES. I'm bullish about heir future

My relative grumpiness about the Reds is mostly due to a weirdly designed roster and when they choose to spend money, getting the least bang for the buck

trophy

1

Kevin

12:33

Why do you think the other projection systems are so much higher than ZiPS on Jazz Chisholm's 2024 PAs? It seems like ZiPS is the only one appropriately considering his injury history.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Well, Steamer uses the depth chart playing time!

Invader Zimmerman did a look at it

and found for the guys who were undeniably major leaguers, ZiPS actually did a really good job with playing time, much better than I had expected

12:34

So ZiPS is SORT OF a playing time predictor, just for some dudes

but not for, say, Samuel Basallo, who will not play in the majors at all this year

Dale

12:34

Hey Dan, long time listener, first time caller. First off, thanks for all your work with ZiPS; It's a massive advantage in fantasy baseball! Is there any way for the public to access 90th percentile projections? I'm trying to identify some breakouts

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I don't publish 90s as a whole, but I do publish 80s!

Eric

12:34

The Cubs aren't going to trot out Nick Madrigal at 3B on Opening Day, right? RIGHT??

Dan Szymborski

12:34

They may. We'r enot quit ein March yet so wait and see

TomBruno23

12:35

Have you seen Leapday William yet today?

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