JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:59

I'm the type of person who immediately hates and regrets everything I write as soon as I hit send

1:00

I think this?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-hitter-xstats-are-useful/

Zach

1:00

Re: Feels like we should be in March already

I think that was a joke Dan! It's leap day

A dumby

1:00

So if you would expect about 10% of players to hit their 90th percentile and 10th percentile, does that hold true for every percentile bucket? You should see approximately 10% of players roughly distributed across all outcomes?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Yeah! Ideally yould' have 10% in each decile

szyn pouches

1:01

Are you haunted by any single season a player had that ran completely afoul of the ZIPS projections?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Haunted? No. I do the best I can and that's all I can do

1:02

Though for teams, the O's projection haunts me, not because I regret it, but that it led to me hearing for six months that I have a secret grudge against the city I'm from and team I root for, for some reason

Chichikov

1:02

If team control weren't a thing and the Jacksons (Holliday and Chourio) were free agents right now, how much would you and/or ZIPS estimate they'd get on the open market? Assume they're trying to maximize this contract and not enter free agency again in their late 20's.

Dan Szymborski

1:02

1.8 shitloads of money

Eddie Planks Constant

1:02

I stopped following baseball in 2008 and got back into it this season. Glad to see you are doing well. I remember when Zips was on Baseball Primer. What should I know about the 15 years I've missed?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

We have a very weird president and 2020 was even weirder!

I was at ESPN from 2010-2018

I've also gotten 16 years older since 2008, so I'll be 46 in June rather than turning 30

But I bet you had a similar change in age!

Guest

1:03

Which Brewers prospect (besides Chourio) will have the biggest impact?

Dan Szymborski

1:03

I think Black COULD

Guest

1:04

mookie says he wants to be considered a legend of the game when its all said and done. seems to me like he might hit that very ethereal benchmark
what is his projected final WAR total?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

I like when people ask me the things I already have!

1:05

ZiPS projects Betts finishes at 81.4 WAR, 2557 hits, 432 homers, 128 OPS+ over 9282 AB

Also 2016 Dan

1:06

el gasino: when will we see robot umps?

Dan Szymborski: 2040.

Dan Szymborski

1:06

I think we're beating that one

Todd Bonzalez

1:06

Didn't Grandma Szymborski haunt this chat for generations? WAS THAT NOT CONVINCING?!?!

Pitchers of Interest

1:06

Which projection do you feel more confident in, Yamamoto or Imanaga? Or is it more “they share a lot of the same data set, so both about the same”?

Dan Szymborski

1:06

About the same

Victoria

1:06

ok i'm done reading your 2016 chat, jeeeeezus was there a lot of Tr*mp

Dan Szymborski

1:06

Wait, did I talk a lot of politics in 2016?

I hate talking politics, what did you people do to me that I'm suppressing?

Matt

1:09

Hey Dan, any thoughts on the terms of Bellinger’s contract?

Dan Szymborski

1:09

It's reasonable for a contending team

Jake Heisenripbauer

1:09

In 2024 it feels like MLB is the only major sport that hasnt been ruined by the influence of Vegas. NBA and especially the NFL are jokes. Is it just a matter of time or maybe Vegas already has a huge influence on MLB and it just isnt as noticable? or is there something inherent with the game of baseball specifically that makes it harder to affect outcomes?

Dan Szymborski

1:09

baseball is pretty coinflippy

And it's never been the favorite to bet on anyway

Broken Bat

1:10

Enjoy your insights Dan. Understand the layers of variances in seeking future performance of the players. That being aside, depth of roster isn’t just nighest WAR etc. of total team but depth is having suitable backup defensive, power, contact, speed, and a degeee of potential among others to play above the 50% projectiles. That’s my opinion, not yours. But I am curious witzhnrosters not being set yet, so it’s early, what teams potentially have maybe deep rosters that might lack the STAR or STARS to be a favorite?

Dan Szymborski

1:10

But remember, the more stuff you include, the more work is involved

The FG projections can run instantly when there's a trade or something

1:11

to do the ZiPS method, if I'm doing the full-fat ZiPS projections, first I need two days for the numbers to crunch on two PCs

and then about four hours to run the distribution of team quality from simulated depth charts

and then another two hours to run a million year of sims

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