JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/29/23

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

KC Pain

12:46

Would you rather have Baz or Ragans long term?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Baz

Victoria

12:47

Who wears their eyeblack the best in baseball? Chris Morel? Lindor? Harper?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I don't have Smoky+ but maybe Eno does?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I am now conducting this chat

Dan Szymborski

12:47

FRAUD!

12:48

Not Mike Morse

12:48

How much does ballpark and team defense affect a projection for a strikeout pitcher? Does the difference between say Yankee Stadium and Oracle Park do much to Snell’s projected stats?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Slightly. The park factors *are* predictive, even if relatively small compared to other stuff

12:50

You should see me in MLB the Show when there's a Moment or some other game in Target during day games! lol

Ah, someone else had this complaint

KC Pain

12:50

Who do you see the Orioles moving? They cant possibly keep all their prospects with a logjam at positions. They have to move some before the shine wears off, age, or injury strikes right? They didnt even clear a spot with the Burnes move lol

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I suspect Santander could go in the right trade

Nate

12:51

Re Melendez: ZiPS is probably more concerned about the 1100+ MLB PAs of below replacement level production primarily due to a glove made of lead

Gold Star

12:51

Are you on Bluesky yet? It seems to have taken the lead for replacing Twitter.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I am, but I have to admit I'm kinda lazy on posting on it

since so many people who read me are still on twitter and they only JUST opened up

szyn pouches

12:51

in a hypothetical world where the diamondbacks lose gallen and kelly to free agency in 2 years, am I wrong to be unreasonably optimistic about a combo of Pfaadt-E-Rod-Mena/Lin?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

If you are, then so is zips

Jeremy

12:52

I'm assuming ZiPS takes into account the player's teammates and position in the order, right? For example, does the projection change/refine once they sign as a free agent? Thinking a Justin Turner, for example.

Dan Szymborski

12:52

SPECIFICALLY, no. Though it does use proxies that work

12:53

For example, it estimates the level of team offense by the projections of the returning guys and average production elsewhere. Same with defense

And as a kludge, it works surprisingly well

And I find the downside here -- missing something on a team with HUGE turnover -- isn't worse than the cost of constantly changing everybody's projection every day

Guest

12:53

Obviously Trevor Bauer isn’t on a team but if he does go to one does fangraphs have his expected stats?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I do have his projection in the system somewhere

Waitk, he's projected

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-bauer/12703/stats?position=P

Guest

12:54

Who will be the brewers starting 3rd and 2nd baseman?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I don't think our depth charts are off

Dale

12:55

Christmas came early this year! Where can I find the 80th percentile ZiPS projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

the player pages!

err the team rundowns

trying to figure out how much we can stuff onto player pages

12:56

I know we'll have the splits up in the near future

Sirras

12:57

What is your favorite article you wrote in the last year? That FG published, regardless of author?

Dan Szymborski

12:57

Not sure on the second, so it would be unfair to name on

for my personal fave?

12:59

Hmm, sorry it takes a few

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Dan Szymborski hosts a chat