JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 2/8/24

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Tacoby Bellsbury

12:12

What transaction this winter do you most fear you'll be wrong about?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I don't THINK I'm wrong, but I do worry about being wrong about Reds transactions the most, since they're the fans that have the most convenient access to murder me

Zach

12:13

Do you publish intervals for team projections? Would be curious to know which teams ZiPS thinks have the largest (and smallest) range of plausible outcomes

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I will on the final ones

site issues

12:13

Not sure where to send this, but Fangraphs pages seem to be occasionally sending me to a McAfee spam site lately. I'm not getting this issue on other websites.

Dan Szymborski

12:13

We've had some reports of that, I know David's been looking into it

Self Centered A-hole

12:13

So about my fantasy team. I adopted a stinker and rebuilding. How would you suggest I use zips projections on prospects to sort out the guys that are boom/bust types (who i would rather bet on) than guys that are more likely to be big leaguers, but with a very limited ceiling. Thanks for helping with my team because my team is what's REALLY important here. to me!

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Those team pages have the 80th/20th percentiles!

JDizzle

12:14

On the new Fangraphs projections...What do u make of the Braves at 26.5% winning the WS, while the Dodgers are only at 15.5%? Thought that might be closer.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Since I don't DO those numbers myself, my insight is kinda limited

12:15

But the 10 percentage point bump in division winning probability helps that

Becasue it's a bfd to get that bye

JDizzle

12:15

Which OF'er do u like more as a last-round pick in a Best Ball Points league? K Carpenter or J Kelenic?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Kelenic

TomBruno23

12:15

Grateful Dead 12.14.80 Long Beach CA going well with this chat. Berta don't you come around here...anymore...

Cat Latos

12:15

How do my cat friends do?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Justinian's on my office windowsill watching a white squirrel. Last I saw, Mercutio was asleep in the living room, Cassiopeia asleep on the couch in the back TV room upstairs, and Constantine was hanging out on the kitchen counter staking out when he gets food

Champdo

12:17

so with all the sturm und drang over the Tigers choosing Jobe over Mayer it seems like Jobe has turned into a pretty good prospect.

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Generally speaking, it's hard to do TOO badly when you pick because of the uncertainty

unless you do like the Pirates did with Moskos or something

Trader Jerry’s

12:17

How much does the projection correction on Gregory Santos affect your opinion on the trade that sent him to Seattle?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

None. He's still damn good

12:18

I didn't even realize he was leading the league in fWAR in the projections since ZiPS is only partially FIP-based in its war

Mark

12:18

Spencer Steer more than just a guy this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I mean, he's solid, but he's not really a star and has a relatively low ceiling

Sandwich Snob

12:19

i used to go to Subway for sandwiches. But they now use a hinge cut where there's one piece of bread and the meat slapped inside. I am afraid this mirrors a hot dog bun in most respects and all intelligent life on earth knows a hot dog is NOT a sandwich. Wouldn't a Subway sandwich with a hinge cut be equally NOT a sandwich? I'd love a meatball sub, but I can't eat that if it's not a sandwich and you're the expert on that topic. What's your position?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Yeah, it's not a sandwich. BUt you can still enjoy a meatball non-sandwich

Moose

12:20

Are you taking the over or under on your creation’s projected win-loss record for the Mariners (85-77)?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Over because it's not quite .540

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter

12:20

Which MLB player do you think could take me in a street fight?

and please tell me that Colton Cowser will head up a package that gets him to Chicago for Cease.

Dan Szymborski

12:20

None

And I don't think the White Sox are realistic

romorr

12:20

A lot of people think Elias is going to piecemeal a BP together over the season. Okay with that? Or do you think we should be aggressive and try to add through FA, or a trade.

Dan Szymborski

12:20

It's tricky to do that DURING the season

12:21

The Rays usually have their "dudes they found on a park bench that end up with a 3.50 ERA" guys at least in the organization by now

Red

12:21

I get when non statistically inclined people get mad at ZiPS output. But that O’s fan yesterday who was screaming variable issues for not predicting 90th percentile outcomes as a baseline the last two years was uh, something

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Someone with an economics background ought to be less dumb.

Dadgut

12:22

Mariners playoff odds don’t seem to line up with what ZiPS is saying here, with the Rangers doing significantly better. Is it because ZiPS weighs the last season more heavily than Steamer?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Again, that kind of thing is really hard to grok

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