JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/12/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/12/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:16

Possibly, though if my dreams are any indication, it would be random mid-tier players not stars

12:17

"I got in a fight with Hunter Strickland in an elevator but we agreed to a truce because we had to team up to pass Brexit for some reason."

"I was talking with Albert PUjols during spring training 2019 and he decided to retire after getting schooled by a hardthrowing submariner pitcher for the Dodgers from AA, Peaver Stockfriars."

12:18

"I traded Billy Ripken to the Reds for farm equipment but the farm equipment didn't work"

"Me and a bunch of other saber guys kidnapped a whole bunch of pitchers for some reason. My job was to kidnap Jose Rosado, which I did, and he was very annoyed that he had been kidnapped. He started yelling, so I hid him by turning him into a cob of corn and covering him with aluminum foil. But I covered his mouth and it accidentally killed him"

And so on. I have the dreams of a madman

12:19

" me and Rick Schu went to get cheesesteaks but for some reason we got them at Best Buy."

12:20

I once threw my full dream log into AI to see if it could deduce any pattern and while it obviously referenced seemingly random baseball players, mostly 80s/90s guys, there's also a pattern in which I'm absolutely frustrated because I'm trying to fix something and other people's incompetence is standing in my way

TooDamnTall

12:20

Is everyone right or is everyone wrong?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Both!

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:20

Which Freaky Friday was freakier -- the original with Jodie Foster or the remake with Lindsay Lohan?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I didn't actually see the remake

Dan Norman Lear

12:20

What's your take on the Rangers' yoots Jung and Carter? Any "post-hype" upside?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Jung probably not. It's hard to get lost injury time back and he's not young

Carter's still young enough there's a decent chance he can still become something more than he is now

EccentricATLFan

12:21

So, now that you've established that you were a prophet with Luzardo and predicting it'd be more than ZiPS projection, any willingness to share the upcoming lottery numbers with us?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

But then I'd have to share it with you guys

12:23

I once was discussing the lottery with my mom and she was convinced that if I won the lottery, I probably wouldn't spend 95% of it and would mostly just keep on what I normally do

which kind of takes the fun out of imagining winning the lottery

Chris

12:24

With Matt McLain, is it simply an issue of health to return to 2023 form, or is he more likely to settle in somewhere in the middle? Aside from the gaudy spring stats, is he back?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I think somewhere in the middle. There's just a lot of unknown there

Pop

12:24

Does ZiPs factor in things like Velocity? Randy Vasquez has seen increased velo this spring training and I assume that will help his projections

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Yes

SJF

12:24

Who are some prospects over the years ZIPS has been low on that you had to resist the urge to just hard code a rosier number in for em?? (obviously joking on the data manipulation)

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Walcott for one, though ZiPS came around on him

Jamey

12:25

I think I read that at least some Statcast data is available for Speing Training. I’m curious if that data will be enough to influence projections for the current season, or if there’s just not enough data still.

Oaktown Blues

12:25

Will ZiPS be able to incorporate Spring training statcast data into projections this year? Or do you need to wait until next year so you can see how it translates to regular season?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

ZiPS won't have spring training statcast yet. It is probably a year or two down the road

12:26

New things never get implemented the same year

Well, except for figuring out the 2020 short season, I couldn't wait until 2022 to consider 2021 projections

Crabcakes

12:26

I know, I know, Spring Training stats don't mean anything, but Coby Mayo has come to the plate 28 times and has 1 K, 0 BB, and .500 AVG. Please tell me what this means.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Not a TON, but it probably means SOMETHING

TooDamnTall

12:26

I haven't looked too deeply into this, but I sort of noticed dwindling 3 year projections for multiple pitchers that didn't appear to be age related. Did I just happen upon some randomness, or do pitchers all have (I assume) risk baked into projections that far out?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

All pitchers have some risk, especially healthy ones

12:27

There's occasionally some weirdness when it gets into FG

Zach

12:27

I just read a random MLB.com article listing the best baseball nicknames of all day and they listed "All Rise" for Judge at No. 10. First of all, that's not a nickname! Second, we're way worse at assigning cool names to people than we used to be. Polar Bear for Pete Alonso might be the best work at present and I'm struggling to think of better ones... anyway, what's your nickname Dan, so we can address you properly in all future chats?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I normally just go by Dan or Szym rather than a nickname

though the Murray Chass-coined Digital Dandy is the preferred nickname

12:28

I'm kinda heart-broken that my mom didn't get her way with the baby naming with me since she wanted Alexander, but my dad hated that name. Zander Szymborski has a nice ring to it. I might have even spelled it Zander Zymborski

12:29

or Xander Xymborski

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