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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/12/26

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Darryl Vanilla

12:29

Why does the FanGraphs Depth Chart hate Carson Benge's

fielding?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

not sure!

Crabcakes

12:29

Are there stats where the trend is more useful for the prediction of the future than the actual value? E.g. velocity/spin on a pitch or sprint speed or bat speed? Seems like changes in those, whatever they may have started from, would herald changes in outcome

Dan Szymborski

12:29

velocity deltas are really useful

maybe not AS useful, but a CHANGE in a strikeout rate can be just as crucial as the strikeout rate itself

Robbie314

12:29

I know he’s just a minor league signing, but say something nice about Andrew McCutchen?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

He's not the craziest Hall of Famer on a peak level

12:31

I'm almost certainly one of the writers who gives him the most consideration in six years or so

BaseballFan

12:31

Who would you say has a lineup better built for power, Mets, Mariners, or Orioles

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Orioles

Idiotic Failson

12:31

Are you planning on incorporating AI into your projections, if for nothing else for coding?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

No, though I do use it to check my visual basic lines

Krontz

12:31

Will Bazzana be Guardians starter at 2B by ASB? Rocchio move to SS?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

It's a possibility

Insert Witty Name Here

12:32

Way to casually mention you can spend 25k on a used piano. Don’t go to Soviet Russia anytime soon.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I'm not wealthy, I'm just a middle-aged man with a good income, little debt, no kids, and who doesn't care much about stuff

and I live in a low cost of living area

12:34

I've been playing piano for more than 40 years, and I rarely have the opportunity to play on bosendorfers as I've always preferred their sounds to steinway or bechstein

War2D2

12:34

Tbf I think most people have gotten into fights with Hunter Strickland, in this or the dream world.

Krontz

12:34

MLB 2027 .... best guess when opening day occurs? May 1 reasonable?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

To finish the question, I'm not really a spender at all. I own three pairs of shoes. I have one suit, and my haircuts are like $25.

Scared to answer that question

seems like bad karma inviting me

12:36

I suspect that the mode outcome is a normal seasonal opening

but there are really long, bad tails out there

12:37

I actually think the owners aren't actually deadset on a salary cap, that it's a negotiating position that they believe they can come off of in return for the MLBPA not pushing for another thing

12:38

Because, MLB already has a soft salary cap. And the teams that are blowing by it are already paying a FUCKTON of money into the league in penalties

The Dodgers paid $169 million to the league las tyear

12:39

A real salary cap would come with a floor, which might be worse for the cheap teams than the status quo is

12:40

and a salary cap would involve owners having to disclose more of their finances

Insert Witty Name Here

12:40

A few weeks back in a chat you mentioned Minds Eye and I had a flashback as a kid watching this from my dad’s VHS collection. I wonder how many hours of shitty early 90’s computer programming it took to make this.

War2D2

12:40

Do you think the Cubs still won their division? Or do you think the relative paucity of starter options will bite them in a long season?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I think they're favorites, though not prohibitive ones

Crabcakes

12:40

Gerrit Cole returning more like old Verlander "two years off just means I'm well rested for a CY level performance" or more like old Scherzer "I'm getting progressively dinged up and transforming into wily veteran"?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I think more Scherzer, but that's just my gut

Austin

12:40

Bit of a sillier question, but how much stupid stuff can ZIPS project? I was curious if ZIPS could spit out a win total and total runs scored projection for a team with 9 Aaron Judge's and their home stadium is Coors. Silly thought experiment stuff like that. Love all your work!

Dan Szymborski

12:41

ZiPS is pretty flexible, so it's made to handle stupid stuff

Submit that in a mailbag Q!

Oscar

12:41

Who do you expect puts up the most WAR this year between Griffin, Weatherholt, and McGonigle? Does it just depend on whether Griffin is able to make the OD roster, or is there any case for the other 2 if all 3 get promoted?

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