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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/12/26

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War2D2

12:57

I’ve said it before, I think on one of Jay’s chats, but I think we don’t lose any games this time around. The owners are negotiating from a very weak position, what with all the TV contracts coming up. My guess is the collective bargaining agreement after this one is the one that hurts.

Dan Szymborski

12:58

One caveat: the players also showed a lack of willingness to lose games last time

Adam

12:58

Did you ever regularly watch Survivor? Have you watched Survivor 50? Who would win in an all-FG staff Survivor?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

I used to in the early seasons. I lost interest as it started feeling less like a random collection of people who had no idea what they were doing and started having a more "casted" feeling with 2/3 of the cast being random LA actor/model/waiter types who were basically recruited and random famous B people and returning contestants

Alby

12:59

But if you won the lottery you could buy a new Bodendorfer!

Dan Szymborski

1:00

That *is* something I'd definitely do if I won the lottery

Idiotic Failson

1:00

I am of the opinion that the teams that offer those ludicrous deferred deals like the Dodgers and Mets only do so because they can park the money that they have to put in escrow in their own asset management businesses. Do you have any insight on that?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Not directly, but teams like those know a lot about the time value of money

Oaktown Blues

1:00

ZiPS still sees some promise in Zack Gelof, projecting a nearly league average bat. But he ran a 45% K rate last year (in 100 PAs). Do you agree with ZiPS that a bounce back is in the cards?

Dan Szymborski

1:00

To an extent

Oaktown Blues

1:00

Favorite Noel Fielding stat: he won series 4 of Taskmaster

1:03

So that we can definitely evaluate your accent, please film yourself saying "Aaron earned an iron urn"

Dan Szymborski

1:03

https://soundcloud.com/dan-szymborski/aaron-earned-an-iron-urn

Dr. Grumbles

1:06

I enjoyed the AI FanGraphs villain song a few weeks ago

Dan Szymborski

1:06

heh

here's that, for those who might be confused by the reference

https://suno.com/song/ffb13c6f-2c39-4688-b5fc-b8023b862039?sh=XiXI7vyd...

Guest

1:06

would you ever post an audit of zips? showing how effective it is at predicting different metrics? would be good transparency

Dan Szymborski

1:06

The data's all out there and I frequently post calibration data on Twitter

1:07

Projection systems are so close that I can hardly be impartial on the best way to evaluate ZiPS

Guest

1:07

was sorta surprised there wasn't a FG article on Team USA's game against Italy. I like coming to FG for the level headed analysis. Made me wonder-- are articles generally assigned, or do writers just pitch ideas and Meg approves?

Dan Szymborski

1:07

Generally we call dibs about what we're doing in fangraphs slack

Writers almost get to write what they want

1:08

Now, when there are individual things, like putting together chats or pre-writes for free agents or the positional report assignments, then they're usually assigned

Tacoby Bellsbury

1:08

Rank the tools in order of importance: Bat Masterson, Will Power, Throw Pillow, Speed Racer, Noel Fielding

Dan Szymborski

1:09

lol

Kimbo

1:09

What do you think happens with Isaac Paredes? Seems like a very crowded infield and he is great when healthy

Dan Szymborski

1:09

I STILL kinda think he gets traded

Surplus Valuez = Stolen Wages

1:10

Chance the Cubs get 12-15 fWAR from the non-1B IF?

Dan Szymborski

1:10

45% maybe?

Guest

1:11

in low info environments like milb, does zips use available pitch characteristics / location data to help improve projections?

Dan Szymborski

1:11

no, though it's something I'd like to see long term if I have the data support

Oaktown Blues

1:11

You actually recorded the phrase! FG response to user feedback is unparalleled

Dan

1:11

Inspired by the Cody Ponce question that started the chat… if we agree that the current level of talent in MLB goes up over time, how far back do you have to go until it’s the same level as current NBP? Like, presumably NBP won’t ever fully catch up to MLB, as most of their absolute best players come here… but then MLB sends back the guys who just barely fall out of the league. So it makes sense that it’s as good as AAAA… is AAAA today as good as the majors in 1985? 1970? Will NBP in 25 years be as good as the bigs today?

Dan Szymborski

1:12

I'm not quite sure HOW to answer that since the vast majority of our NPB->MLB/Milb data is over the last 25 years

and like all of KBO

Karl Hungus

1:12

The Pasquash is a great nickname.

Keith Hernandez

1:13

Who has a better season: Brett Baty or Mark Vientos?

Dan Szymborski

1:13

Baty, he simply has more use on the current roster

Greg

1:13

Torpedo bats was fun. But putting that aside, do you think teams are doing enough research on the quality of baseball bats their players are using? Presumably, out of the ~390 position players on opening day rosters, someone is going to be using the 390th best bat and putting themselves (and therefore their team) at a disadvantage. I know what makes a bat "good" is multifaceted but it seems likely to me that there are cases where guys are hitting warning track flyouts that maybe would've been wall scrapers had they used a different bat

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