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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/12/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:41

I'm going to be chicken and say Wetherholt since I'm simply the most confident in him getting the most PA

Idiotic Failson

12:41

Whenever I talk about you (which, admittedly, has been never) I refer to you as 'the cat guy'

BaseballFan

12:42

What is your favorite fielding stat?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Noel Fielding now has many more appearances co-hosting a baking show than for the mighty boosh

Key Flaw

12:46

How strong is your Bawlmer/Mayrlin accent? Has it mellowed since you left? As a Maryland native, when I lived in Kentucky the natives marveled over my accent (it was reciprocal marveling). Since my parents weren't Marylanders, mine wasn't quite so bad, and with modern media most accents are mellowing in general. What do you do to keep the accent alive and well?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

On a casual level, I don't really have an accent. My dad was the only member of the family I saw much that had much of a Baltimore accent, and he's been dead for 30 years and only a limited part of my life for an additional 5 or so

My mom's accent is kind of neutral and my mom's parents, who I was very close with (especially my grandfather) had a German accent and a heavy New York accent

(my grandfather was a lawyer from the Bronx)

12:48

Now, a *linguist* could probably identify my accent, simply because I have normal characteristics of mid-atlantic accents

that NY Times dialect tool some years ago nailed me absolutely perfectly

12:49

but that's more subtle things, like if cot-caught are the same word for you (they're nto for me)

but I don't say ruff for roof or wooder for water

I save everything

12:50

IIf you want to confirm my accent one way or the other in a more objective way, it's rpobably easiest to just listen to one of my podcast appearances and investigate for yourself!

Coby Extra Mayo

12:51

Which of these guys are you highest on long term? Kyle Harrison, Mick Abel, Parker Messick. Who's going to have the best 2025 from that group?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I think Harrison is the most likely to be REALLY good, but I think Messick has the best average result

Opifijikl

12:51

When analyzing ZiPS data, do you visualize it or just look at it in a table? I've thought there may be an way to see the shapes of players' projected production or other interesting trends, but I'm not sure what/how.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I like tables. A giant spreadsheet full of values is something I process very well

12:52

I'm not super visual

I like dense data. And I have a 34-inch 4K monitor that opens spreadsheets with a default of Tahoma 8-point

War2D2

12:52

Xander Xymborski is 100% a William Gibson villain name.

Wes

12:52

Is Giolito going to be on a major league rotation on opening day? Is Kopech going to be on a major league team?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

No, I think probably

Lowetide

12:52

If there is a lockout next year, will you do a simulated season we can follow along to? I can't imagine it would be much work. :-)

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Maybe I can get Ben to bring back the MLB Showcast on Twitch that we did during the pandemic

that was a real hoot to do

especially the time one of my cats brought me a live bee

Key Flaw

12:53

Today is Steve Finley's birthday apparently. Could you possibly do a ZiPS on the 1991 Orioles (and beyond) to see what would have happened if they didn't send Finley, Harnish, and Schilling for.... (this is hard to type out).... Glenn Davis. Also.... which is worse, the Glenn Davis trade or the Jeffery Maier catch?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I could put that in my to do list. I've been kinda saving ZiPS Time Warps for a work stoppage

Jasper

12:54

Hey Dan! Do you think managers still set lineups? There's a lot of consternation in the A's community that Mark Kotsay is using Kurtz as the leadoff hitter, but I have to think that's a front office decision, no?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

It varies from team to team

I think people who don't know what they're talking about GREATLY overestimate just how much a front office "forces" on managers

Projectable

12:55

Two random questions as I overanalyze preseason ZiPS projections

I didn't see any league adjusted pitcher stats - can I make my own by dividing out the park factors? Or does ZiPS on some level project its own park factors
I notice the Steamer projections now have handedness splits available, but not ZiPS. Is there a chance something like that is available on the projections page too? Or is there a difference between whats on the projections page and in the team previews?

Love the projections as always, super fun to see how the model rates players

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I don't know why they're not up, David has the splits

Yeah, it's kinda weird we don't list ERA- or FIP- as part of projectiont ables

12:56

maybe I'll bring that up

Guest

12:56

I've heard some debate with WBC about who you'd start a franchise with if you could pick 1 MLB player. Seems like the most popular picks are Ohtani, Judge, or BWJr.

ZIPs projects Ohtani as the most valuable player this upcoming season (summing his pitching and batting WAR), and I assume it does for 2027 and 2028 as well

What year does ZIPs no longer project Ohtani to be MLB's WARlord? And who does it project instead

Dan Szymborski

12:56

That might be a good piece actually. I did it with Trout some years ago

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trouts-inevitable-decline/

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