JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 3/13/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 3/13/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:16

Ohtani's use was fairly unusual

ZiPS enjoyer

12:16

Hey Dan, big fan of your projections. Are there any "ideal world" type modifications you would make to ZiPS that just arent feasible right now, whether that's because of complexity or computing power?

Dan Szymborski

12:16

I'd LOVE to be able to run it every day and have it be more automated

Guest

12:16

just curious why ZiPS doesn't project QS or holds?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Holds and saves are so situational that I've avoided it because there have been bigger fish to fry

though the final preaseason ZiPS *will* have saves

12:18

I'm always working on things with ZiPS and I'm growing increasingly aware of the clock.

I'm probably now in the second half of the time I have to work on the ZiPS project

12:19

At 46, I already feel that I'm not as computationally sharp as I was when I created ZiPS initially

12:20

That's not the near future, but there will come a day when I can no longer usefully improve/add things to ZiPS

Unless I die suddenly, which has the same effect.

Crates

12:20

How embarrassing is it for all the mid-market non-spending wild-card-contending teams to watch the A's extend their young stars

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I mean, the A's are only getting their payroll UP TO embarrassing

12:21

When I lost 17 pounds in my first month of dieting last year, nobody could have been shamed by that. I was able to lose 17 pounds by having a boatload of pounds to begin with

Crates

12:21

Over/under on how many of the current crop of young studs the O's ever extend: 0.5

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Over. I think they'll sign one at least

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:21

Which ZiPS projections caused you to do a double take this year? Which one was the craziest because it was a screw up, and which one was real but most surprising?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

The Cubs offense generally

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:21

According to ZiPS, which remaining free agent has the highest projected WAR?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Barry Bonds

(kidding)

12:23

Verdugo maybe?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:23

Do the A's actually move to Vegas in the next five years, or do they get stuck in limbo (also known as Sacramento)?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I think they will

mmddyyyy

12:23

Does the league keep talking about the CBA unprompted?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Probably

Quarantino Martinez

12:23

Are the Rays going to fix Joe Boyle? Not like a pet, like a pitcher.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I hope so!

12:23

is zips going to add bat speed, exit velo, stuff+. seems like low hanging fruit well correlated to success

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I've had lots of this stuff in ZiPS for a while

12:24

Not bat speed, simply because the data is still relatively new, and it seems a lot of this has been captured indirectly

War2d2

12:24

re: The Rays, do you think at any point the league will try to “Frank McCourt” Sternberg over the stadium mess? It seems like he’s getting enough negative press that they might be getting tired of him. I don’t think they necessarily disprove of the methods, so much as they don’t want the scrutiny.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I don't think MLB thinks teams getting bad press for extorting stadium deals is a big negative

12:25

The question is if the Rays become embarrassing enough for NON payroll/stadium issues

And even then, who knows. They didn't McCourt the Wilpons

This is a good excuse to post this oldie that I made like a decad ago

12:26

A real deep dive that will only interest Baltimore people

12:27

Frank McCourt's ex-sife, Jamie McCourt, is Jack Luskin's daughter. Yes, THAT Luskin.

Guest

12:27

Do you know which player ZiPS is most certain about (smallest standard deviation)?

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