JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 3/13/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 3/13/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:27

not offhand

Guest

12:29

Sorry if this may have been asked before, but does ZiPS have any issues or difficulties with projecting "Quad-A" type players?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

No. Not that some won't miss, but a similar number of established major leaguers of similar ages also suck going forward

Like yeah, David McCarty's exist, but so do Carlos Baergii

Well-Beered Englishman

12:30

Reds GM would also be a cushy gig because you'd be praised for simply not acquiring more infielders.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

But it would be bad for the Skyline team sponsorship and I still get the occasional hate DM from someone still angry I didn't vote for Jonathan India in 2021

ZiP It

12:31

For the ZiPS Top 100, how "close" are #100, #101, #150 and #200 in terms of predicted production? And just for fun, who are numbers 101, 150, and 200?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

fairly close and it gets really close past 200 or so

12:33

Christian Moore was 101, Hao-Yu Lee was 150, Ralphy Velazquez was 200, Tirso Ornelas was 250, Blake Dunn was 300, Ben Peoples was 350, and Justin Riemer was 400

Insert Witty Name Here

12:33

What data would Baseball Idiot Savant collect?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

all non playing facts of players? Like track the cheesesteak record

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:33

Dan, give me something, anything, positive about a White Sox player

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Andrew Benintendi has never revived mercantilism on a national scale.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:34

How will the tariffs work on the Blue Jays? Each time the Blue Jays score, it will count as 1.25 runs, right? And for the U.S. teams, each score only counts for 0.75 runs, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

25% of their wins are divided among the rest of the league after April 1st

Ceddy B Ready

12:35

y0, homeslice, can you give me a concise explanation of how ZIPS projects someone playing a new primary position. Joey Ortiz for instance moving his glove to SS for 2025.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I have a whole model for that

ZiPS can project any player at any position

12:36

it uses real defensive measurements at a position, implied (defensive measurements at other position), and some other things. For example, there's *some* correlation between speed data and how a player adjusts in a move to the outfield

Now, some fast players are crappy outfielders (Alex Sanchez), but there's a relationship

Ceddy B Ready

12:36

Elly was tired, son! Running fast is hard.

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I agree

Guest

12:36

athletics beating out the rockies for least favourable. a damning indictment of the a's.

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I think that the Monforts have not run the Rockies well at all, but they're not actually trying to tank, which is a big deal

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:37

The Chuck Finley Memorial Question: Which player who retired at least 2 years ago would have the best current ZiPS projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I THINK Greinke?

v2micca

12:37

I'm seeing a lot of projections for the Braves that are really bullish on Spencer Strider making his return in May or June and I just can't buy it. deGrom had the same procedure a year earlier around the same time period and he didn't return until the after the following All-Star Break. What is different with Strider?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Projection systems themselves shouldn't be considered good predictors of playing time for a guy like Greinke

mmddyyyy

12:37

Do newer stadiums have smaller playing surfaces?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I'm not sure the correlation is that strong, and basically 90% of stadiums are now pretty new

now, I'm confident that newer stadiums have smaller FOUL territories

David Stearns

12:38

Most likely of the big three in the nl east to miss the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Mets

12:39

I think Mets have the most iffy pitching

and there's that Mets tendency towards dramatic implosions

12:40

Like if the Mets won 117 games, the entire team would catch measles or something during the playoff bye

Reds2024!

12:40

How often is the FanGraphs zips database updated?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

In season, FG updaets it every morning

Ceddy B Ready

12:40

As a Denver resident, the Monfarts are terrible owners. Fundamentally misunderstanding sports science and are resistant to admitting such things. BUT... they would like to win. And they have been installing better decision-makers at all levels. Still not convinced the Mile High City needs a MLB team.

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Yeah, that's the issue with the Rockies. I really enjoy being in Denver, and I think ownership wants to win

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