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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/17/17
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AvatarDan Szymborski
2:12
A career year? No.
He's been lousy enough lately that you can't expect him to beat his early performance.
STiVo
2:14
Are you on the Bundy bandwagon?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:14
Yes
Ghost of Greg Maddux Past
2:14
Tony Blengino seems to think Markakis' exit velos and launch angles indicated he may have been better than his stats indicated last year. Does a 110 wRC+ strike you as crazy? His defense in 2016 was also better by UZR and DRS than it was in 2015. Anything to that or just a one-year blip?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:14
Color me skeptical, given his age.
Southpaw the fuzzy alligator
2:14
I have tried endlessly to convince my family why trading Quintana is absolutely necessary, to no avail. What does Quintana look like in 2019? Is there any argument at all for keeping him?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:15
He'll be good but the expectation for a pitcher on the top of his game in the future is *always* lesser.
White Sox are taking a huge risk by waiting for deadline or later.
Ghost of Greg Maddux Past
2:15
Is there a hitter or pitcher prospect type that you think gets systematically underrated by scouts?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:15
I think they're generally a lot better than they used to be.
2:16
You don't see quite the same hate as there used to be for short players.
AgaveOtter
2:16
Thoughts on Hearthstone news: price increase, new expansion, and do you think game has hit peak and now on the downslope (lots of streamers seem to be dabbling in other CCGs)?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:16
It ebbs and flows (and the dollar is stronger relative to EU than when the prices)
Matt
2:17
ZiPS has Lorenzo Cain posting his worst rate stats (AVG, OBP, SLG) since 2013. Even in his injury riddled down year last year, he did better than that. Explain yo'self.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:18
Well one, it's not really because ZiPS has a lower league-aveage than FG does.
And two, he's at the worst decline/improve age he's been ever.
He's a declining asset at this point, only question is when. Time always wins.
gump
2:18
Know this isn't your forte, but what do you think about this way of getting around international spending limits:

Salary your minor leaguers!

Teams regularly spent 15+ million in INT before the limits, this would cost 5 million. The FA would be getting hundreds of thousands of dollars more than your competitors would be able to offer, and it wouldn't affect your pool.

Thoughts?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:19
If it's obviously to get around the pool, the commish will step in.
Hank
2:19
Who is your pick to win the NCAA tournament?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:19
Don't have one - I'm least connected with NCAA basketball as basically ever
Southpaw the fuzzy alligator
2:20
What is the nastiest pitch you have ever seen? Video if possible.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
Nothing is as nasty as a knuckleball fluttering just right!
Steve
2:20
Tacos have a higher ceiling than burritos but burritos have a higher floor.
Mike
2:20
Does ZIPS take into account pitcher's home/road splits against park factors? Asking as Jon Gray pitches at home in Coors but his home splits were much better than road splits last year. Is the projection system still penalizing him for the Coors park factor?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
Very, very slightly over a very long period.
Generic park splits are *FAR* more predictive of a player's future park splits than the player's previous park splits.
2:21
Home/road stats are EXTREMELY noisy.
2:22
You can't simply assume a guy having 13 starts each in two parks pitched to the same level in both chunks against equal competition and the difference is primarily PF. It isn't
And if you take actual home/road splits too seriously, you'll kill your model. It's not predcitive enough.
tip tipson
2:22
Whats your thoughts on Josh Bell this year and going fwd? Can he be a "Real" hitter and make up for his poor D.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:23
I'm honestly skeptical he'll really be a good 1B overall.
There's just something underwhelming about his minor league power.
He *feels* like a guy that should be hitting for more.
2:24
But there's a part of me that just thinks of him as a poor defensive lesser Mark Grace.
Heading for the Hills
2:24
What does Colorado bullpen look like now with Holland's recent outing? Newest closer? Ottavina newest setup man. Or dreaded closer by committee?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:25
I think Holland will start the season as the closer
Steve
2:25
Anthony Rendon seems kind of forgotten after 2015. Rebounded with a nice 2016, any more room for improvement?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:26
There's still some - he's had a lot of injuries in his career and doesn't have the same experience as lots of players his age.
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