Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/17/17
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Dan Szymborski
2:32
Maybe there's some government program that subsidizes the Jays for employing lousy players?
Mt Lebo Blue Devil
2:32
Average Exit velo seems to favor players who whiff a lot, since there is no penalty for whiffing but there is one for weak contact. Is it safe to assume teams adjust for this in their valuations?
Dan Szymborski
2:32
Yes
Jeff
2:32
Can you explain how ZiPS playing time predictions work? I noticed Posey gets 512 PA but has averaged 600+ last three years.
Dan Szymborski
2:33
He's a catcher, there's always a year-on-year risk.
Jim
2:33
Projections seem to love Thames this year. You buying it?
Dan Szymborski
2:33
I wouldn't call "slightly below-average" as love, at least in ZiPS.
Dan
2:33
who would you put in a Nation of Domination 2.0 ? I think none of the New Day guys work as "angry." My suggestions would be Mark Henry (veteran) Titus O'Neill and Apollo Crews (young guys stagnating) and Noam Dar (white/Jewish ally with black GF) with angry preacher D-Von Dudley managing. Anyone else you'd consider/thoughts?
Dan Szymborski
2:33
I'd like to just stay out of that whole revival as there would be so much cringe.
Von Schloss
2:33
Rays with a potential future rotation featuring Archer, Snell, Honeywell & De Leon. Are you buying?
Dan Szymborski
2:33
It's at least interesting.
Southpaw the fuzzy alligator
2:33
Avisail Garcia tearing it up in spring just like the last year. Why is he still in the big leagues? My guess is it's the striking resemblance to Miggy. He also hits the ball REALLY hard once every 15 games. He's an enigma.
Dan Szymborski
2:33
It actually *IS* that he looks like Cabrera.
Zack
2:34
Why do some of your followers have this obsession with Nick Markakis? Isn't he just a 35 year old AAAA player?
Dan Szymborski
2:34
I have no idea.
Dan
2:34
What non-Zipsed interesting people in the WBC (outside of Japanese/Cuban guys) do you think would project well, and also what guys do you think could get by. Marquis certainly looked capable of organizational depth, and Zeid as a 1970s style swingman, just from Israel.
Dan Szymborski
2:34
I'd have to actually run the projections.
There's some NPB WBC roster projections going up
Keith Hernandez
2:34
ZIPS says no, but - True or False? Jose Reyes is a 2.5 win player this year
Dan Szymborski
2:34
False. Nobody *is* a 2.5 win player this year because 0 regular season games have happened.
But I don't think he will be. Jose Reyes is not very good anymore.
Alex
2:34
Have you played Far Cry Primal? I hated it for the first ~10 hours or so but am really getting into t.
Dan Szymborski
2:35
I have not.
Carson Cistulli
2:35
I do have a serious inquiry for you, Dan Szymborski. Would you say that Daniel Norris has a statistically meaningful chance to develop- only insofar to the chance that any starting pitcher has - into an above average starting pitcher? What are you expectations for him?
Dan Szymborski
2:36
I think he does clearly. He was actually quite solid in 2016 remember!
Matt
2:37
Is JP Crawfords offensive profile enough to make him fantasy relevant? For a long time he was a glove-first prospect, but the last year and a half or so, that bat seemed to break out a little.
Dan Szymborski
2:37
Fantasy? A little tough.
Dan
2:37
How jelly are you that I saw Brock Lesnar live (squashing KO in 90 seconds.) MSG cards are ridiculous.
saditude
2:37
Do you take pleasure, aside from your work, in just watching baseball games? I'm not trying to be snide - perhaps a better way to ask is: would you watch baseball as part of leisure downtime?
Dan Szymborski
2:38
Yes. Technically, I don't *have* to watch as many games as I do to do my job.
I've got three screens in my office and it's not like I regularly report on the in-game things.
gump
2:38
If you paid all your minor leaguers equally, how would the commish be able to say you were going around the rules? It would be like saying you team was unilaterally submitting higher arbitration numbers- is that against the rules?

I suspect the only response would be to cap minor league salaries similar to the major league cap.
Dan Szymborski
2:38
Depends how it goes about.
The Oriole Bird
2:38
Trey Mancini career WAR over/under: 0.1?
Dan Szymborski
2:39
I'll say over, as he's probably better than that a year. Though not a top prospect even remotely
Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs
2:39
Better nickname: Lance in the Pants McCullers or Kevlar (Kevin Pillar)?
Dan Szymborski
2:39
I like the former.
Henry
2:39
Do you think Evan Longoria will be traded this year? and to who?
Dan Szymborski
2:39
No
Dan
2:39
Can you do ZIPS probabilities for various players leading the Padres pitchers in WAR? I think there is a 20+% probability Capps leads the Pads. I think there is a non-zero chance Buddy Baumann leads the Pads in WAR. Hell, if De Paula started the year in the bigs, HE could lead the Pads in WAR.
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