JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/2/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:17

I'm the ZiPS guy and Orelvis most certainly did not drop!

Oaktown Blues

12:17

Hi Dan, I know this is an Eric question, but since you're the one chatting, do you know what happened with the "prospect limbo" article? Was originally slated for Friday of prospect week, then pushed to Monday, then nothing

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Sorry, I don't know the schedule

Merciless Pepper of Quetzalacatenango

12:17

Are merciless peppers acceptable to you in chili?
The way they've pushed chips onto the table, how much sense would it make for the Padres to trade for at least a mid-rotation starter to avoid rushing Musgrove back?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

They are, but a combination of GERD and just general aging mean I can't handle the hot stuff to the same degree I used to, so I have to be careful
It makes sense, but they cupboard is increasingly bare in the farm system; they've made a LOT of prospect trades

There's no 3, it automatically numbered it

Chippy

12:18

Do you side with ZiPS or the prospect team on rankings for Noelvi Marte? Asking as a neurotic Mariners fan.

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I'll take ZiPS on this one

Walton Dilcox

12:19

What does ZiPs like about Richard Gallardo (Cubs)? Positive WAR projection over 109 innings isn’t half bad for a 21 YO with 1 AA start

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I'm not sure I'd call that a positive projection!

12:20

But he has decent control and keeps the ball down, so he can only be SO bad

Oaktown Blues

12:20

How superlative would a spring training performance have to be for you to consider it to have predictive value? Like if a guy hit 15 HR in 50 spring training PA would you consider changing your opinion of their true talent level?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I probably would

Spring training does have a very tiny bit of predictive value. Dan Rosenheck demonstrated this

12:21

But I think the slight gain in accuracy isn't worth everyone having all the projections change the day before the season

Adam

12:21

If the Dodgers suddenly became motivated to upgrade at short, what do you think it would take to get Rosario from Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

A lot. Yes, he's a free agent after the season, but Cleveland isn't a slam dunk in the AL Central. I don't think the Guardians just want to turn the position over to Tyler Freeman unless they have a REALLY good reason to

RobertoBeers

12:23

A man A Dan A Chat about how to project shoulder injury recovery, revocer yrujni redluohs tcejorp ot woh tuoba tahc anadanama

Geoff

12:23

No question Dan, just thank you for your optimistic view of the young Redlegs. I'm excited for the future

Dan Szymborski

12:23

There was a lot of doom and gloom in the piece for an optimistic piece! lol

Guest

12:23

Do you think what Preller and Seidler have done is sustainable?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

It's tricky. I suspect they really are running mildly negative margins now, especially with the TV revenues up in the air

So I don't know just how far Seidler is willing to go. The Padres still need pitching long-term and I can't see them running a $350 million payroll

12:24

Does the WBC provide any value for projecting international players? And could you provide projections for every random player from every country just for fun?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I looked briefly, but it isn't enough data to really be helpful

Appa Yip Yip

12:25

If you threw one (1) pitch to Aaron Judge, how far would the resultant home run go?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Who says it's going to be anywhere near the strike zone?

Assuming I can still throw my shitty palmball, I'm tossing that low and outside

Guest

12:26

French fries, freedom fries, or a mixture?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

French fries unless the AP is involved

Then I guess it's Fries of Belgian Descent that Claim to be from the Nation-State of France

GBS42

12:27

I'm heading to Florida in a couple of weeks to see some spring training games. Thankfully, there are some Skyline Chili locations in the state so I can get my fix.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Oh god, they've gone that far?

Ted

12:27

does it get more likely each day that Jordan Walker is going to be a corner outfielder on the Cardinals opening day roster?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I mean, it' snot getting less likely

Oaktown Blues

12:28

Was a bit surprised not to see Esteury Ruiz on the ZiPS top 100 as one of the top performers in the minors last year stats-wise. Is that due to his underwhelming previous seasons, or some peripherals I'm overlooking? And are you willing to share what his actual ranking was according to ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

He was 136

and lot is the underwhelming previous seasons

12:29

and minor league walks don't translate as nicely as people think

12:30

ZiPS isn't going to complete ignore that it saw him as a .215/.278/.341 hitter in 2021

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