JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/2/23

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/2/23

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ZIPpers

12:30

Do you think it’s even remotely realistic for Atlanta to cobble together ~2 war out of whatever LF arrangement they end up with? Is their end of year LF on the roster right now?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I like the Braves a lot (and ZiPS does too!) but I'm not optimistic about left

Chippy

12:30

How do you account for the unexpected levels of "motivation" that teams have shown in giving long-term deals to Machado and the free agent middle infielders? Are teams seeing the game's financial structure in a way that we're not yet seeing, or are they doing nutty stuff that will cost them in the long run?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

Well, in ZiPS I don't

12:31

There's a lot of tea leaf reading involved here

And I'm not sure what we're seeing is a real sea change

12:32

Fact is, you had the first normal offseason in years - post-2020 still had COVID uncertainty and a year of empty stadiums and post-2021 had the lockout

You had everybody getting an extra bonus in the form of the streaming media sale

12:33

You had the luxury tax threshold take a relatively large bump up (and the only large bump up)

RobertoBeers

12:33

But more seriously, are the ZiPS projeciton error bars associated with shoulder injury outcomes the greatest of the variuos joints? How different are those error bars for hitters/pitchers?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Shoulder is the worst flag a pitcher can get

MilwaukeeBeerJays

12:33

Good morning Dan the Zipser. Have you ever murdered random stragglers passing through your neck of the woods? -not the FBI

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Hey, things happen

Adam

12:34

Which team currently projected to win its division do you think is most likely to finish fourth?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Cleveland maybe? I think it's a very low chance, of course

MAYBE the Yankees if the division is very strong?

David

12:35

Have you heard of anyone testing out AI in fantasy drafts? I would love to see how it stacks up against some of the experts.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I haven't, simply because it's hard to get an AI all caught up

Appa Yip Yip

12:35

What does ZiPS think Matt Chapman gets in free agency? The position player options are thin next year.

Dan Szymborski

12:36

ZiPS thinks 5/113

Daniel P McGood-Boy

12:37

Do you run projections on players that are no longer rookie eligible for possible break out candidates?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I run projections on everyone!

Daniel P McGood-Boy

12:37

Does Gallo bounceback?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I think it's possible

He's not ancient

Adam

12:37

Better odds this year: Bryce Harper plays 300 innings in the outfield, or Mookie Betts plays 1 inning at shortstop?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

latter

Daniel P McGood-Boy

12:37

Mike Trout has slugged over .600 the last 6 years. Did Zips predict that?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I would guess no - as of 2017 he hadn't yet slugged .600

But I'm checking

12:40

Nope, I'm wrong

12:42

entering 2017, ZiPS projected Trout to hit .303/.437/.618 from 2017-2022

with an OPS+ of 170

He hit .299/.428/.630 with an OPS+ of 185

mike

12:42

the prospect limbo article was cancelled (probably) because there weren't' enough dudes (saw on Twitter, Dan might want to follow his editor there)

Dan Szymborski

12:43

It's very easy to miss things on Twitter!

Limozeen

12:43

ZIPS seems a bit higher on the A's than other projection systems. This is especially glaring when you look at ZIPS odds compared to the fangraphs playoff odds (72 wins, 6.1% playoffs vs 68 wins and 0.1% playoffs)

Dan Szymborski

12:43

This is a depressing level of optimism

12:44

ZiPS generally believes in the A's ability to trout out infinite fourth starters

trot

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