JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/25/21

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Fernando Tatis-Buck Jr.

12:18

What are your altered expectations for Gallen vs ZiPS altered expectations? Seems more likely this was a gradual pitching injury exacerbated by hitting

Dan Szymborski

12:18

ZiPS doesn't have much to say about a stress fracture

I hope it wasn't a gradual injury

12:19

And I'm a bit worried - I remember Tony Saunders

The Twinkie

12:19

Berrios 2.7% chance to win the Cy. How does your opinion of Berrios compare to what Zips is predicting?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I'm about even with ZiPS on this one

Sodo Mojo

12:19

Given projections and what you have seen in spring who do you think the Mariners should start in LF on opening day?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I'd just stick out Taylor Trammell to keep getting him at bats

economist

12:20

A week or so ago you wrote the article "What Did Teams Pay Per Win in Free Agency". You found a lot of dispersion -- you focused on the nonlinearity of value per win. But another point you should be looking at: the assumption of a single market clearing price for wins. This is almost surely wrong in the free agent market, where you probably should be using something like an auction model. Happy to blab more about this if of interest and what you'd want to look for in the data.

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I know what you're getting at in the game-theoretic models

but I'm not convinced such an approach makes sense.

First, the data is just awful - there are very few players, so I prefer a simple approach

12:25

And second, it's not *really* an auction that would fit into the generalized auction formats

12:26

I'm just not sure that the payoff is worth the mess, honestly.

Appa Yip Yip

12:26

Who makes more starts for the Jays, Tanner Roark or Anthony Kay?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Roark

Guest

12:27

I have panama-erie-suez in my canal ranks. Is that right?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

no love for volga?

asnbrv

12:28

Does ZiPS weigh different injuries heavier than others for the player's future? If so what are the "worst" common injuries a player (and pitchers) can suffer in general according to ZiPS.

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Generalized.

Most relevant for pitchers

12:29

Labrum/rotator cuff/capsule worst for pitchers

then generalized shoulder

then TJ

Guest

12:29

This year's positional series has featured multiple instances of analysts questioning the reliability of projections for certain players. As the source of half of the projections, how does that make you feel?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

It would be boring if we didn't fight with the projections!

12:30

Remember: all models are wrong, but some are useful

Norm

12:30

If you were running a team would you rather have a guarantee your team wins the next World Series or a guarantee your next first round pick is a 1st ballot Hall of Famer?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

The latter

12:31

If I have that latter guarantee and he doesn't know that, I offer him a 20-year, $200 million contract in the low minors and try to use his skills to win several!

baycommuter

12:31

Why didn't I know ZiPS wasn't made for fantasy the year BEFORE I used it?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I mean, it's useful, but it's playing time agnostic, which is a huge deal for fantasy

Wander would have gotten a *way* higher dollar figure than was warranted, because ZiPS didn't care he wasn't going to be the starter in 2020. Fantasy players DO care though!

MoonBeamMcSwine

12:32

Ockam's Razor.. when considering a complex problem..the simplest approach/solution is often the best..

either that.. or you're a simpleton that likes chili...with beans..

billyjojimbob

12:32

Who ends up having a better year in the TO OF? Teoscar or Lourdes?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I think Teoscar, but there's some genetic thing that Gurriels have that always make me underrated them

Bang Bang

12:33

Did you think the extension offer of 6/$120M was a fair one to Correa? And do you expect him to increase his value this season or will he likely regret not taking the offer?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Definitely on the low side. ZiPS suggest 6/165

economist

12:34

Well, take a look at the potential number of landing spots for a given player (based on which teams had "holes" in a given position) and whether those teams are trying to win (and maybe if those are high-budget teams) and see if it's correlated with the price per win. This should give a good signal about whether this is important.

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