JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:21

I've played a ton of elder scrolls

haevn't played zero dawn

So yes

but I do tend to prefer classic JRPGs

12:22

I'm a lot more excited these days for new Falcom Trails releases than Final Fantasy ones.

Guest

12:22

I noticed that FG projections for my team went down after ZIPS was (were?) incorporated. Why do you hate my team so much?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

TO make you sad.

Billy Marlin

12:22

Re: the salary cap. I can see the appeal of conceding that point and accepting a cap tied to league revenue... but since the owners have demonstrated they do everything in bad faith, how could the players trust that the definition of "revenue" doesn't get manipulated and twisted once the ink is dry?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

They're doing it now, though.

A constantly twisted revenue guarantee is probably still a lot better than a complete lack of one.

FannyGraphy

12:23

Hi Dan, I had a question about player aging; I've seen the aging curves and things of that nature, but I was wondering about how do you see player skills typically age? or how does ZIPS see it? Like for example, does a hitter's contact start to fade first? power? eye? or do some skills improve with age, like perhaps plate discipline? Thank you

Dan Szymborski

12:23

ZiPS doesn't have a "baked-in" set of rules in this sense.

ZiPS compares players, on the fly, to a very large cohort of roughly similar types of players

12:24

There's no part of ZiPS that says "OK, if X goes up A%, then Y goes down B%"

comish4lif

12:24

I keep hearing pro-owner people say that "baseball contracts are guaranteed" - most baseball players don't make it to free agency, anyone pre-arb can be released at any time.

What percentage of MLB players are on a guaranteed contract?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Most (but the minimum salary means that a huge chunk of players aren't)

12:25

But here's the thing: there's no rule that *requires* guaranteed contracts to free agents

You can *offer* Carlos Correa a 10-year deal that's made up of nine team options.

comish4lif

12:25

The owners' books: the MLBPA sees the owners books right? Or at least some version of them? What does it say about the integrity of the MLBPA that this data is never leaked.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

They see *some* data. But they don't get to do what, say, a forensic accountant would do

Confused

12:26

I'm looking at Julio Urias's projections and note that Zips has him with a significantly better FIP than THE BAT - 3.44 to 3.86. As you might expect then, Zips is projecting better underlying metrics across the board (at least where comparisons are available) such as K/9, BB/9, HR/9. Yet, the projected WAR is an identical 3.8 for both systems. Since FG WAR is FIP-based, how this the case? Zips is projecting 5 fewer IP, but it's hard to believe that could cancel out a 0.42 FIP advantage over ~170 IP.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

is it in the playe rpage or from the rundown?

12:27

Hmm, couldnt' tell you

But I also don't know if THEBAT's WAR is submitted or FG-calculated

Moog Powell

12:29

What's your favorite kind of immature humor?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Puns

Andy

12:29

If losing 25 games is the pain point that suggests that they need to to sign the CBA by around original opening day. Are we that optimistic?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

No, I think that's most an optimistic scenario, not the most likely one.

I dont' think I'm goign to die before I'm 45, but that doesn't mean my prediction is that I'm going to die at 45.

12:30

At least, I hope it isn't; I turn 44 in June.

Non-Mex Mex

12:30

Why stop at a 12-team playoff? Can’t we include the other 18 teams in a loser’s bracket to determine for once and for all (well, for 2022) whether Baltimore or Colorado is worse?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

If owners were willing to be creative, you could even make a 30-team playoff that still preferred the normal probabilities from team quality

but they're not

because it' snot just about the playoff money, it's about making success more random and thus, team quality worth less

Insert Witty Name Here

12:31

Should the players just keep making more demands as more games are lost? For every game missed, the minimum salary demand goes up 100k?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

You have to be careful because the legal requirement to negotiated in good faith is a two way street

If they're playing admittedly satisfying games like this, it weakens their NLRB complaint and opens them up to one

Manny Trillo

12:31

As this drags on into probably at least May, what chance is there the players manage to get missed games rescheduled? This would seemingly push the end of playoffs back to neutral site like the 2020 WS. Is there a shot of that happening with explanded playoffs anyway

Dan Szymborski

12:31

THat's going to be the tough part.

12:32

And we have a lot of tough parts!

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