JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:32

The number of games is a mandatory bargaining subject. Which means that players have to *agree* on the number of games to be played or at least the number of games they're paid for.

RIght now, the MLBPA's position is that there will be 162 games played and 162 games they're paid for and that is not MLB's position

12:33

And the more games lost, the more this becomes a problem.

12:34

You could have a scenario where it's July, they have an agreement on everything that's currently an issue, but there's still no CBA because they can't agree on how many games and how many games the players are paid for

Metropolitan Immolators

12:34

Was there ever a point that anyone would have guessed that Oliver Perez would retire as one of the oldest players in the game?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

The day before he retired!

Confused

12:34

More on Urias's projections: I thought Zips DC was Zips rates applied to FG staff IP projections. And the FGDC was blended Zips/Steamer rates applied to the same staff IP projections. Yet, ZipsDC has 130 IP and FGDC has 159. Do I misunderstand?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Wait, that's not supposed to be.

12:37

I've sent a message to David aboutr that

Guest

12:37

Can you run ZiPS backwards? What happens if you plug Votto’s last season in, and project backwards? What does his earlier career look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I can but it takes a little work

12:38

I did that with Ted Williams

Joe

12:38

Do you and the other projection gurus (steamer guys, Ariel Cohen, Derek Carty) have a group chat?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

No. Or there may be one and I'm just not invted

RVA Empire

12:38

Are there enough data points to see if the ZIPS Top 100 has a higher correlation of success than the BOARD Top 100? If so, I'd love to see the results and FG internal discussion [eats popcorn].

Dan Szymborski

12:38

ZiPS has done very well, but it's also not looking for the exact same thing

Guest

12:38

Who is your favorite minor league signing of the offseason thus far?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I'm kinda curious if Dan Straily's HR improvement in korea can persist back in the US

12:39

What are we listening to today?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Not much, this week has caused me to have a giant permanent headache.

I did listen to the 3/1 episode of the Everyday Driver podcast.

Pat

12:40

With the Orioles moving left-field back to Harford Road, what sort of adjustments do you think teams will need to make? Will MLB allow leftfielders to play on Segways?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I don't think it' shtat big a deal.

andrew

12:40

I think most if not all people in this chat are pro-player (myself included). Can you attempt to steel-man and give the best realistic pro-owner argument?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

OK, though please note that I do not believe this at all.

12:44

"From a fundamental standpoint, it's true that baseball's revenues are growing much faster than salaries. However, the basis for that revenue growth is in areas such as internet and international revenue, which are primarily being generated because of our investment in there, the risk of which we all assumed, not the players , who simply played the same baseball they always have. No player had any skin in our investment in MLBAM, so why would they be automatically entitled to those gains? We gave the players an opportunity to get a salary cap with a revenue guarantee in 1994 and they went on strike and then sued us. Their slowdown in revenue is due to their intransigence about the partnership we offered them, leaving us to take the risk."

Now, please note that this is not my argument.

But you ASKED me to play devil's advocate here, something I do enjoy doing.

12:46

When I was a high school senior, social studies was one of the only few classes I didn't nope the hell out of that year (the others were prob/stat and wind ensemble/orchestra). Towson was becoming a law and public policy magnet at the time and the GT course at the time was basically arguing SCOTUS cases for the whole year. I always tried to take the unpleasant side!

Guest

12:46

Hi Dan! What, if any, impact do you think a sustained lockout would have on the development of prospects who are on the 40 man, but would probably start the season in AAA. Do you think generationally there’s something going to be messed up with how players develop due to the lack of consistency over the past 3 seasons?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I think for guys like MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto, a year could have significant consequences

12:47

(I could probably put together a better pro-owner argument in time, but I only had like 45 seconds to think about and start typing)

Laffy Tuffy

12:47

Do you like Dan Straily or Aaron Brooks more for 2022?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Straily. It's not like Brooks because a K machine in KBO

comish4lif

12:48

From the perspective of MLB catching legitimate criticism for not promoting the players, how necessary was it to remove player likenesses from team websites?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Actually quite so.

There are legal reasons for that.

Guest

12:48

In the 60s and 70s, the media and the fans were very pro-owner. This seems to have changed. Bill James has theorized that this is because we can actually assign values to players now in a way we couldn't years ago, so it's easier to see which players are getting ripped off. Does this seem right to you?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I think that's a reasonable hypothesis

Guest

12:48

How many owners do you think would have accepted the players latest offer? Are the owners mostly united? Are they split evenly? Or is there a group of ten or fewer holdouts?

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